| The rapid economic development and population growth have dramatically increased the demand for natural resources,resulting in the existing stock of natural resources being unable to meet the needs of human beings in the process of living and development,and the limited natural resources have become overloaded,changing the regional ecological base,and the contradiction between social economy and natural resources has become more and more prominent,and the ecological safety is facing great strain and challenge.The ecological footprint model,which is one of the methods to measure regional ecological security,has been extensively adopted,in particularly the"provincial hectare"ecological footprint model,which enables the calculation and study of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity at the municipal and county administrative units.The study of municipal and county-level administrative units can be used to explore the spatial differences and formulate ecological environmental protection policies in response to local characteristics,and provide research ideas for small-scale ecological environmental protection studies.The study takes the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone(BGEZ)as the study area,simulates carbon emissions in the BGEZ from 2005 to 2020 based on nighttime lighting data of long time series,and calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint of energy account per capita in each county(district)of the BGEZ in 2010,2015 and 2020;compiles the statistical data of each city in the BGEZ in 2010,2015 and 2020.The ecological footprint per capita,ecological carrying capacity per capita and ecological deficit/surplus per capita of each county(district)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in 2010,2015 and 2020 are calculated based on the"provincial hectare"ecological footprint model,and their spatial and temporal changes are analyzed;the results of the"provincial hectare"ecological footprint model are used to calculate the ecological footprint per capita in 2010,2015 and 2020."ecological footprint model calculation results,the ecological pressure index model is introduced as an ecological security evaluation index to evaluate the changes in ecological security status of counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone from 2010 to 2020,and put forward corresponding opinions and suggestions to provide data reference for the formulation of sustainable district development strategies and ecological environmental conservation measures,and the research obtained The main results are:(1)The fitting results of energy consumption carbon emission and night lighting data TDN(total value of night lighting)shows that there is a close correlation between them,the fitting formula y=0.0305x,and the goodness of fit R~2=0.65.The overall average relative error is 11.87%when simulating the energy consumption carbon emission of Guangxi from 2005 to 2020 by night lighting data.The mean and minimum values of ecological footprint per capita of energy account of each county(district)in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in 2020 gradually increase,and the maximum value of ecological footprint per capita of energy account shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.(2)The ecological footprint per capita of the biological account,the ecological footprint per capita of the energy account and the ecological footprint per capita of the construction land in each county(district)of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone differ greatly in time and space,among which the ecological footprint per capita of the energy account is the largest and shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing in the vertical direction,but the ecological footprint per capita of the biological account and the ecological footprint per capita of the construction land have different trends of increasing and decreasing in time.Specifically,the average ecological footprint per capita of each county(district)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is 0.96hm~2in2010,1.37hm~2in 2015,and 1.24hm~2in 2020 in each county(district)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.(3)The per capita ecological carrying capacity of the counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone from 2010 to 2020 shows a tendency of first decline and then rise in general,indicating that the capacity of the ecosystem of the counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone to provide resources is in the recovery stage.Among them,the average ecological carrying capacity per capita of the counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in 2010 is 0.59 hm~2,0.45 hm~2in 2015,0.48 hm~2in 2020.(4)Only five counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone are in ecological surplus in 2010,and all counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone are in ecological deficit in2015 and 2020,but the ecological deficit in 2020 is better than that in 2015.Only four counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone are in a safer ecological status in 2010,and only one county(district)is in a slightly less safe status.In 2020,there is 15 counties(districts)in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone with very insecure ecological status,23 counties(districts)with very insecure status,and the counties(districts)with extremely insecure ecological status are mainly located in Nanning City and coastal cities.Combined with the change trend of ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita,the ecological security of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone shows a general trend of deterioration and then gradual recovery,and energy consumption has a greater impact on ecological security. |
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