| Water security is the basic guarantee of human life security,and sufficient available water resources are an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable development of ecosystems and stable prosperity of human society.Safeguarding water security has become an important challenge for all countries today.China’s total water consumption is nearly saturated,and the amount of water used in agriculture and industry is increasing day by day,so China is facing a serious water security problem.A target of water saving of about 16%reduction in water consumption of 10,000 Yuan GDP compared to 2020 was proposed in the 14th Five-Year Plan for the construction of water-saving society.Therefore,the study of water resources carrying capacity,which helps to ensure water security,has attracted much attention from the government and many scholars.This paper firstly establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity based on the theoretical framework of "PS-DR-DP",and obtains the comprehensive evaluation scores of water resources carrying capacity of each province in China from 2010 to 2018.Second,a water resources support-pressure decoupling model is constructed to analyze the trends of water resources carrying capacity changes in each province from the support and pressure perspectives.Next,the modified gravity model is used to construct the spatial association network of China’s water resources carrying capacity.And the spatial clustering characteristics and the characteristics of the spatial association network of China’s inter-provincial water resources carrying capacity from 2010 to 2018 are analyzed using social network analysis.Finally,Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP)correlation analysis and QAP regression analysis are used to explore the influencing factors of the spatial association network of water resources carrying capacity in China.The findings of the study show that:(1)China’s water resources carrying capacity has significant spatial distribution differences,and is roughly the same as the distribution of natural water resources,with the overall characteristics of "high in the south and low in the north".(2)The change trend of China’s water resources carrying capacity has been in a positive direction.In the first stage(2010-2014),nearly two-thirds of the provinces experienced a decline in water resources carrying capacity(the decoupling types are extended negative decoupling,weak negative decoupling and strong negative decoupling provinces).By the second stage(2014-2018)only seven provinces(Beijing,Chongqing,Jiangsu,Hunan,Zhejiang,Shanghai,and Hainan)showed a decreasing trend.(3)China has a stable and complex inter-provincial water resources carrying capacity spatial correlation network,with significant spatial spillover effects among different provinces.(4)China’s water resources carrying capacity has significant spatial clustering characteristics,and can be divided into four major groups.(5)The spatial association network of China’s water resources carrying capacity is influenced by economic development level,industrial structure,investment in scientific research,hydrological facilities construction level,endowment of water resources and location.The contributions of this paper are mainly:(1)The changes of water resources carrying capacity are analyzed from two aspects of water resources support force and water resources pressure.The dynamic changes of the water resources carrying capacity of each province in China are analyzed from two perspectives of support and pressure by using the decoupling model,so that the trend and rate of change of the water resources carrying capacity of each province can be accurately reflected.(2)China’s water resources carrying capacity spatial association network is analyzed by using social network analysis method,to obtain the overall characteristics and evolution trend of China’s water resources carrying capacity spatial association network.Not only can we study the spatial spillover effect of geographical proximity,but also the spatial spillover effect of China’s water resources carrying capacity across regions,so that we can have a comprehensive understanding of the spatial linkage of inter-provincial water resources carrying capacity nationwide.(3)Explore the main influencing factors of the spatially association network of China’s water resources carrying capacity using the QAP.The influencing factors that make the spatial association network of water resources carrying capacity in China more closely connected will be explored.It will provide an effective decision basis for strengthening the spatial spillover effect of water resources carrying capacity and alleviating the water shortage problem in some regions. |
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