Effect Of Sentiment Orientation Of The Belt And Road On Trade Between China And ASEAN

With the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road initiative gradually advancing,the world pattern has undergone tremendous changes.The country along the routes frequently trades with China with huge capital.The ASEAN is one of the important subjects among the countries along the routes.This paper adds emotional orientation factors in the relationship between ASEAN countries and China,which can help China understand the effect the Belt and Road initiative on other countries.This article measures the emotional orientation of the ASEAN countries to the Belt and Road initiative,and then studies the influence of the emotional orientation on the trade between China and ASEAN,which could have important implications for the development of the country's macro economy.Firstly,this article collects news on the theme of the Belt and Road of the ASEAN countries from 2014 to 2019.These news was divided into five categories according to policies,facilities,trade,finance,and people-to-people.And this paper used the method of unsupervised sentiwordnet to calculate the emotional orientation of these five categories.The results show that these five types of emotions are positive most of time,which indicates that the ten ASEAN countries generally support the Belt and Road initiative and believe that B&R have played a role in promoting the deve lopment of their own countries.ASEAN is willing to catch the express train of B&R and is ready to develop together with China.Secondly,this article studies the spatial statistical nature of the volume of import and export between China and ASEAN,and the results show that the volume of import and export between China and ASEAN has a spatial autocorrelation relationship.The Moran's I is negative,indicating that there is a negative spatial autocorrelation between the ASEAN countries.Finally,this paper uses the spatial weight matrix of adjacency and the spatial econometric modeling to analyze the relationship between the emotional orientation of ASEAN and the volume of import and export between China and ASEAN.After a series of tests,the spatial Du rbin model is used for analysis.This article uses the spatial Durbin model to take the volume of import and export between China and ASEAN as the dependent variable,the trade sentiment of ASEAN and its first-order lagging terms are independent variables.GDP of ASEAN,RMB exchange rate,and China's economic openness to ASEAN countries are regarded as control variables.The experimental resu lts show that trade sentiment indicators have a positive impact on import and export trade.And the positive effect of trade sentiment in the current period is stronger than the period.Moreover,the current trade sentiment has a lagging space,indicating that the increased trade sentiment of neighboring countries will increase the volume of import and export between China and own country.This shows that the more a country recognizes the trade aspect of the Belt and Road initiative,the more it promotes the country's import and export trade with China.Based on the above conclusions,China needs to continue to promote the Belt and Road initiative,explain the essence of the Belt and Road initiative to the world,and avoid unnecessary misunderstandings.China should strengthen cooperation with ASEAN and expand cooperation space.