Research On Export Trade Potential Of Mechanical And Electrical Products From China To ASEAN

Since China and ASEAN signed a free trade area agreement,the scale of bilateral trade has continued to expand.Affected by the new crown epidemic,China's trade with other countries has been affected in different degrees.However,in 2020,ASEAN become China's largest trading partner,showing a great resilience and potential of both sides.As a major manufacturing country,mechanical and electrical products are very important for China.With "One Belt and Road" initiative and the construction of the CAFTA,there will be more opportunities for mechanical and electrical products export to ASEAN countries.So,it is of great significance to work on the influencing factors and export potential of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions.Under the background of mechanical and electrical products from China to ASEAN,this paper systematically depict the export scale,export structure,export market and also competitiveness and complementarity of mechanical and electrical products trade from China to ASEAN.On this basis,this paper summarizes the influencing factors of China's mechanical and electrical products export to ASEAN from the view of supply,demand,trade policy and trade facilitation.Then,based on the relevant data of China and ASEAN countries from 2010 to 2019,it analyzes the influencing factors of mechanical and electrical products from China to ASEAN by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model,and further calculates the trade potential of China's mechanical and electrical products export to ASEAN from two aspects of total export volume and export categories according to the obtained trade efficiency.Through the calculation of trade potential,it is found that from the perspective of total export volume,China's mechanical and electrical products export to ASEAN still has huge trade potential,among which the export trade efficiency of mechanical and electrical products to the Philippines,Cambodia,Thailand,Indonesia and other countries is low,and the trade potential is large.The trade efficiency with Singapore is the highest and the trade potential is the lowest;From the perspective of export classification,China's export efficiency of low-tech metal products to ASEAN is relatively low,and its export potential is relatively large;The export efficiency of medium technology machinery and transportation equipment is high but the potential of export is not so high;The export efficiency of high-tech electrical and electronic products is very low,and the export potential is huge.The export efficiency of instruments and meters is low,and the export potential is large.Finally,combined with the empirical conclusion,the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to better develop the export potential of China's mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN from the aspects of increasing the innovation and supply capacity of China's mechanical and electrical enterprises,setting sharing mechanism,and improving trade facilitation.