Research On China's Mobile Phone Export Potential Based On Trade Gravity Model

With the continuous optimization of China's export structure,export of IT product is gaining an increasing large proportion of total exports,which is known to all.Nowadays,China has become the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer.China's mobile phone companies are generally developing well and emerging in the export field.Meanwhile,China's mobile phone industry has become an indispensable part of China's foreign trade.With the increase in demand and sales and the decline in production costs,the market of mobile phone in China has gradually approached saturation after rapid development in several years.At the same time,as durable goods,mobile phone has longer replacement period,leading to weak demand in mobile phone importing countries.At this stage,because of the saturated market and fierce competition,the growth rate of mobile phone sales have declined and even negative growth has appeared in some years.In 2017,China's smart phone production experienced negative growth for the first time.In 2018,China's smart phone production has returned to the level before 2015.Therefore,in order to further develop China's mobile phone industry,it is imperative to tap the export potential of it and find new export markets.In the first place,consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures of mobile phone trade,the thesis will discuss the research direction and problems according to relevant theories of international trade.Secondly,it analyzes the current situation of China's mobile phone exports from export volume and market and explores some problems in exports,so as to make more targeted recommendations on the export of Chinese mobile phones.Thirdly,the thesis analyzes some factors of supply and demand affecting China's mobile phone exports,which will lay the foundation for the following empirical analysis.Finally,based on China's mobile phone export panel data,it selects China's mobile phone export trade volume as the explained variable,China's GDP,the target country's GDP,the distance between the two countries,the foreign trade dependence of the target country,and China's OFDI to the target country of mobile phone exports as explaining variable.The trade gravity model is used to explore the impact of these factors on China's mobile phone exports.On this basis,the export potential of China's mobile phones is estimated.The results indicate that,China's mobile phone export trade volume is positively correlated with China's GDP,target country's GDP,target country's foreign trade dependence and China's OFDI stock of target country,which shows that these four variables promote China's mobile phone exports.It's negatively correlated with the geographical distance,which shows that the existence of distance hinders the export of mobile phones.Based on the results of international trade theory and empirical analysis,the thesis makes further recommendations about promoting China's mobile phone exports from government and enterprise levels,in order to fulfill China's development strategy from a major mobile phone trade country to a mobile phone trade powerhouse.