Study On The Impact Of Housing Affordability On Population Migration

The persistent migration intention of floating population directly affects the change of population flow and town size.To change the unreasonable scale and structure of Chinese cities and the unbalanced development among cities,the key is to guide the migration direction of population.This paper focuses on the impact of housing affordability on the population’s permanent migrate willingness.Based on the facts that China ’s migrant population continued to gather in big cities in recent years,which has led to the continuous rise in housing prices in these cities,using the 2014-2017 national mobile population dynamic monitoring survey data and urban housing prices data and urban characteristics data,considering the city level and individual level control variables,statistical analysis and empirical research on the impact of housing affordability on the willingness to persistent migrate,and group regression and heterogeneity analysis from the perspective of city size,migration range,different age groups and different moving out places.The study found that when controlling a series of variables,the ratio of house price to income has a significant effect and negative correlation with population persistent migrate willingness.The housing burden has entered a stage of restraining the population’s willingness of persistent migration.The enhancement of residents’ ability to pay for housing is conducive to increasing the long-term residence willingness and citizenship of urban migrants.Urban migrants with a high degree of economic agglomeration have a stronger willingness to stay and citizenship.This is because cities with high economic concentration have high-quality urban public goods.The floating population takes into account the utility of urban public goods and the utility of the housing burden.Based on the principle of maximizing utility,they choose to stay in a more economically developed city for a long time.The study also found that migrants in the province and those aged 26-35 are more willing to stay for a long time and more sensitive to housing burdens.Elderly people over 56 years old have almost the same strong desire to become citizens as the floating population aged 26-35 years old,but are least sensitive to housing burden.Moreover,the rural floating population is the main component of the floating population,which is more sensitive to housing burden.The government can use the influence of housing affordability on the population’s willingness to migrate permanently to guide the population flow,and the housing policy will become a means to guide the population migration due to the city’s rational choice of the scope and means of housing security.At the same time,we will improve the reform of the household registration system,attach importance to urban services,improve the social security system,improve the old-age insurance system,vigorously develop the elderly industry,promote the citizenization of the floating population,and ensure the rational and balanced development of cities.