The Impact Of Rising Housing Price On The Fertility Willingness Of Urban Residents

Since the implementation of the family planning policy in the early 1980 s,China has achieved remarkable results:effectively controlling the rapid growth of the population.But this population policy which aims at controlling the population also brings new population problems to our country:low total fertility rate.On the other hand,rising housing prices are also a hot topic of public concern.Housing expenditure and child rearing expenditure are two important expenditures of a family,which will influence each other under certain budget constraints.In this context,this paper attempts to discuss the relationship between housing price and urban residents' fertilitywillingness from theoretical and micro empirical perspectives.This paper systematically reviews literature on fertility intention.summarizing the previous research results from the meaning of fertility intention,the change trend of fertility intention,the factors affecting fertility intention,the ralationship between housing price and fertility intention.This article make new family economics as theory foundation,analyzes the relationship between housing price and fertilitywillingness from the perspective of cost-benefit and the substitution of quantity and quality.Housing price constitutes the shadow cost of children,and the rise of housing price increases the cost of children and restrains the family's demand for children.This paper uses data from CGSS and CEIC,empirical analysis of the relationship between housing prices and urban residents' fertilitywillingness(include the decision of fertility,the ideal number of children,the gender preference).The following conclusions are drawn:(1)The housing price does not significantly inhibit the birth decision of residents,even though it has a significant negative impact on the residents without houses and having small houses,but the significance level is not high.(2)The housing price has a negative relationship with the ideal number of children of urban residents.The higher the housing price is,the lower the ideal number of children of urban residents will be.(3)The housing price also has a significant inhibitory effect on urban residents' willingness to reproduce,especially those whose living space is less than 60 square meters.(4)The increase of housing price changes the gender preference of children.Compared with the preference of strong male,the increase of housing price is more likely to make urban residents choose non-gender preference or strong female preference.The contribution of this paper is:(1)Based on the analysis framework of new family economics,carefully analyzes the impact of housing price on residents' fertility behavior,by dividing housing wealth and non-housing wealth,improving the relevant derivation,enriching theoretical analysis of housing price and residents' fertility behavior.(2)Based on the national micro data,analyzing comprehensively the relationship between housing price and fertilitywillingness of urban residents,which enriches the research results in this field.