An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Gender Ratio On Housing Price

Since 2004,housing prices in China have remained high.On the one hand,the expansion of the population has led to an increase in the demand for basic housing,and the improvement of people’s living standards has promoted the demand for real estate investment.On the other hand,the imbalance of the sex ratio has impacted the marriage market.The current situation of more men than women has led to male families tending to buy houses to improve their status,which in turn pushes up housing prices.Based on this background,this paper studies the actual impact of gender ratio on housing prices.Entering the 2020 s,China’s development focus has shifted from high speed to high quality.The census found that there will be 17.52 million more married men aged 20-40 than women in 2021,with a sex ratio of 108.9,which directly leads to the problem of marriage squeeze in the marriage market,and many men are facing difficulties in marriage.China has been facing the pressure of high housing prices.From 1998 to 2020,the average selling price of commercial housing in China has nearly quadrupled,and the sales area of commercial housing has increased by nearly 13 times.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the effect of gender ratio on housing prices.On the one hand,based on the data of real estate prices,marriage sex ratios and other control variables in 210 prefecture-level cities,we can observe the changing trends of China’s real estate prices and the degree of marriage squeeze.On the other hand,through the research on the relationship between the sex ratio and real estate prices,to a certain extent,it can provide a reference for the government in formulating the fertility policy,and can also provide a reference for the real estate industry and enterprises in housingrelated decision-making.At the same time,the main contributions of this paper to this research field are as follows.1.Research perspective.This paper is the first attempt to examine the impact of gender ratio on real estate prices in China from the perspective of marriage squeeze,which enriches existing research.2.Theoretical model.This paper introduces the house-purchase connection effect brought by marriage into the microindividual consumption model.Then,the influence mechanism of gender ratio on real estate price is analyzed,which lays a certain theoretical foundation for the subsequent empirical analysis.3.The measure of the sex ratio.This paper draws on the practice of Guo Zhigang et al.(2000)and uses the sex ratio of marriage to measure the sex ratio,which reflects the degree of squeeze in the marriage market and is more suitable for the research topic of this paper.This paper selects the control variables of housing prices,sex ratio,per capita disposable income,human capital,urbanization,real estate investment,interest rate,population dependency ratio and housing supply in 210 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2019 to carry out fixed-effect model regression.A series of robustness tests and heterogeneity analysis were carried out,and the following conclusions were drawn: 1.When other variables were controlled,gender ratio had a significant positive impact on housing prices.2.The imbalance of sex ratio leads to the heterogeneity of real estate price increase in regional differences,city size and educational level.3.In terms of control variables,per capita disposable income,human capital,urbanization rate,real estate investment and land supply all have a positive impact on China’s real estate prices;the increase in the real interest rate of real estate mortgage loans will restrain the rise in housing prices to a certain extent.This paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: 1.Promote gender equality and protect women’s right to free development in education and career choice.2.Severely crack down on illegal sex selection,and optimize and improve the fertility policy.3.Adhere to the principle of "housing and not speculating",and guide residents to form a good housebuying concept.4.Vigorously develop the economic level of underdeveloped areas and encourage young people to return to their hometowns for development.5.Put an end to the phenomenon of "high betrothal gifts".6.Improve the social pension system.