A Study On The Relationship Between Urban Population Flow And Housing Price In China

Since the 1990 s,the development of China's real estate market has been very rapid,and the house price is also high.The real estate industry has become an important support for the development of the national economy.After the financial crisis in 2008,the problem of high systematic risk in the real estate market,which is highly tied with GDP,has gradually exposed.The real estate market has gradually returned to the rational level from the prosperity of high enterprises in the same pattern,and has shown the status quo of high regional differentiation.At the same time,China is experiencing a large-scale and highly regular population flow upsurge,and clearly proposed to build a new urbanization road.So far,China's urbanization rate has been higher than 60%,and the rapid urbanization is accompanied by the increasing speed of population flow.Some cities have become cities with continuous population inflow,and some cities have suffered serious brain drain,becoming cities with continuous population loss.Some existing studies and theories have confirmed that the continuous inflow of population will promote the rise of housing prices in the city,and the regional differences and spillover effects of housing prices will cause industrial agglomeration and urban agglomeration,which will inevitably affect the population flow.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to clarify the two-way impact relationship between population flow and housing price under the current urban development in China,which can provide useful reference for the "policy implementation for the city" and population policy adjustment and control of housing market.First of all,this paper clarifies the relevant theories and concepts,and combs the domestic and foreign literature.Secondly,this paper expounds and analyzes the current situation of China's urban population flow and housing market,the scale and characteristics of population flow,the development process of China's housing market and the current situation of China's regional housing price fluctuation.On this basis,the theoretical analysis framework of the interaction between population flow and housing price is constructed,and the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population flow on housing price fluctuation is analyzed.Thirdly,this paperestablishes panel vector autoregression(pvar)model for the data of 257 cities in China from 2008 to 2017,and on this basis,divides cities into regions,and makes further comparative analysis of the empirical results of different regions.Finally,this paper summarizes the content of the study,draws the conclusion that there is a two-way relationship between urban population flow and housing price volatility,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve people's livelihood and solve the problems related to the relationship between urban population flow and housing price volatility.