Economy Analysis And Grid Parity Scenario Study Of Photovoltaic Power Generation In The Central Region Based On LCOE

Although photovoltaic(PV)power generation has the advantages of environmental friendliness and extensive resources,its high dependence on subsidies has caused a huge burden on the national finance.In recent years,benefiting from technological advancement,PV cost has already established the basis for grid parity.At the same time,the government has successively introduced a series of policies to eliminate subsidies and promote parity,which means that PV power generation will fully enter an era of parity during the 14 th FiveYear period.At present,most regions in China have achieved parity on the user side,but for the power side,only a few areas with better resources such as Qinghai meet the requirements.Hubei,Hunan,Henan,Anhui,Jiangxi and Shanxi are the six provinces in the central region.Limited by geographical conditions,the PV resources of them are scarce,resulting in high PV cost and difficulty in parity.Therefore,this paper takes the six provinces as the research object,in order to accelerate the process of PV parity,the main research work is as follows:(1)A PV levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model is constructed to calculate and analyze PV economics.According to the results of the field survey of some PV power plants in the central region in 2019,the paper constructs a PV LCOE model based on the localized parameters of different provinces and calculates the PV LCOE of each province under the2019 scenario.Then,the PV LCOE of each province is compared with the related PV and coal-fired electricity price.The results show that the overall situation in is relatively average.With the exception of Hunan Province due to low utilization hours,which leads to higher PV LCOE than PV electricity price,PV projects in the other five provinces can be profitable,but PV LCOE in all provinces is significantly higher than the price of coal-fired electricity,which indicates that the central region has greater pressure to achieve parity on the grid in the early period of the 14 th Five-Year period.(2)The sensitivity analysis of PV LCOE is carried out.Based on the calculation results in 2019,this paper selects investment cost,utilization hours,and financing cost as uncertain factors in order to conduct a sensitivity analysis on the PV LCOE of each province in the central region.The sensitivity of the same uncertainty factor to PV LCOE in different provinces and the sensitivity of different uncertainty factors to PV LCOE in the same province are compared respectively.The results show that,the provinces with the larger PV LCOE in 2019 are more sensitive to uncertainties.In addition,PV LCOE in all provinces is most sensitive to utilization hours and least sensitive to financing costs.(3)The possibility of achieving parity under different scenarios in 2025 is analyzed.Based on the constructed PV LCOE model,this paper makes the investment cost,utilization hours and financing cost as the driving forces for the decline of PV LCOE during the 14 th Five-Year period,and analyzes the decline path of PV LCOE and the possibility of achieving grid parity in all provinces under pessimistic,neutral and optimistic scenarios in 2025.The results show that under the pessimistic scenario,all provinces are less likely to achieve parity on the grid;under the neutral scenario.The PV LCOE in other provinces except Henan Province is already lower than the coal-fired electricity price,but the advantages are not obvious,which means that there are still possibilities of not being able to reach parity.Under the optimistic scenario,the PV LCOE of all provinces has been significantly lower than the price of coal-fired electricity,and in the case of lower coal-fired electricity prices,it is still able to ensure parity on the grid.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The research results of this paper will help the central region to achieve parity as soon as possible during the 14 th Five-Year period,so as to ensure that the overall parity policy can be smoothly advanced in the whole country.