Economic Analysis And Development Policy Research Of Wind Power Projects

With the continuous deterioration of environmental problems like global warming and haze,the development and utilization of renewable energy has been paid more and more attention by all countries in the world.Because of its pollution-free,huge reserves and mature utilization technology,wind energy has attracted the widest support and attention from all over the world,and has become the most economical clean energy in the world.In order to support and promote the development of renewable energy such as wind power,China's 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy puts forward the goal of realizing the competition between wind power and coal power on the same platform(i.e.access to the Internet at a fair price)by 2020,which means higher requirements and challenges for the development of wind power in China.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to comprehensively analyze the economy of wind power in China,to study the current situation,regional characteristics and influencing factors of wind power cost,to find the space and ways to reduce the cost of wind power,and the challenges,so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development and achieve grid parity of wind power in China.Based on the actual operation of wind power in 2016,this paper calculates the cost of wind power(LCOE)and analyses the economy of wind power by constructing a levelized cost of electricity model.It shows that wind power in most areas is economical in 2016,and the economy of "Three North" areas(North China,Northeast and Northwest)with severe wind abandonment is worse.On the whole,the market competitiveness of wind power is obviously weaker than that of coal power,and the task of grid parity of wind power in 2020 is arduous.On the basis of calculating LCOE of wind power in 2016,this paper makes sensitivity analysis on the influencing factors of LCOE of wind power projects in different resource areas.The results show that hours and unit cost are the most sensitive factors affecting wind power LCOE,and financing cost has a significant impact on wind power LCOE.According to the changes of these three factors,this paper sets up three scenarios of "optimism","neutrality" and "pessimism" in the development of wind power in 2020,and explores the possibility of grid parity of wind power in 2020.The results show that under the optimistic scenario of 2020,only one third of the areas in China can access grid parity.These areas are mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions where the electricity price of desulfurized coal-fired benchmarking poles is relatively high.However,it is difficult to access the Internet at a fair price in the "three north" areas with better wind resources.In the neutral and pessimistic scenarios of 2020.it is difficult for the whole country to achieve parity in access to the Internet.The healthy and sustainable development of wind power can not be separated from the support and promotion of relevant national policies,so it is particularly necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of wind power related policies.Finally,this paper uses structural equation model to hypothesize and verify the mechanism of wind power cost,wind power scale and wind power consumption affected by the existing Feed-In Tariff policy,preferential tax policy,financing policy and regional quota policy,to evaluate the effect of the existing policy of wind power in China and make reasonable policies and suggestions for reducing wind power cost and promoting wind power level price access to the grid.