Study On LCOE Model And Grid Parity Trend Of Photovoltaic Considering System Cost

"The 14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period and window period of peak carbon dioxide emissions,and the task of our country’s energy development transformation is imminent.The state will vigorously promote large-scale,high-proportion,high-quality and market-oriented development of renewable energy in the new energy era,accelerate action on the implementation of renewable energy as an alternative,strive to improve the absorption and storage capacity of new energy,and actively build a new-type power system with new energy as the main body.With the increasing installed capacity of new energy,its access,transportation and consumption become the top priority.However,the increase of system cost caused by the current new energy access to the power system and effective absorption has become a key factor restricting its large-scale development.It is particularly important to accurately calculate the cost of new energy power generation considering system cost.Based on this,this paper explores the constituent boundary of photovoltaic and its absorption system cost,quantifies the comprehensive benefit,levelized cost of energy cost and other economic indicators of photovoltaic considering system cost,and analyzes the influence of our power technology,policy and natural conditions on the development of photovoltaic considering system cost.Furthermore,the photovoltaic grid parity trend and initial year of system cost in different provinces and region were predicted and analyzed.In order to scientifically and accurately determine the economy and the levelized cost of energy of photovoltaic considering system cost,this paper first defines the consumption system of photovoltaic generation system,and analyzes its structure and characteristics.Then,based on the whole life cycle theory,the cost-benefit model and LCOE model of PV considering the system cost are constructed considering the technological progress,policy and other factors.On the basis of the above model,the causal loop diagram among the factors affecting the economy of PV considering system cost is described,several key feedback loops are analyzed,and then a system dynamics model of PV economy considering system cost is constructed to provide a measurement method for evaluating the economy of PV considering system cost.Taking the PV development project considering system cost in Qinghai Province as an example,the project LCOE,internal rate of return,comprehensive benefit and other economic indicators were simulated and analyzed.Finally,the relationship between PV cost,energy storage cost,installed capacity,R&D investment and industrial scale is expounded by using double-factors learning curve model.Based on the double-factors learning curve,an improved LCOE model is constructed to calculate the development trend of PV levelized cost of energy considering system cost.In addition,the initial years of grid parity for PV power generation projects considering system cost in 32 province and region are predicted.The economic evaluation system of PV considering system cost constructed in this paper is helpful to analyze and evaluate the economic value of PV considering system cost,and provides theoretical basis and model analysis for new energy power generation technology with consumption system,which is of great significance for vigorously promoting the development and grid parity of photovoltaic and its consumption system industry in the future.And to provide the government and investors with scientific photovoltaic development and construction decision-making basis.