Research On Typical Meteorological Year For The Development Potential Evaluation Of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation System

In recent years,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation systems has increased rapidly in my country.A reasonable assessment of the development potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems in different regions of our country is conducive to formulating scientific development strategies,building photovoltaic power generation systems on a large scale,and avoiding resource waste.When evaluating the development potential of the system in different regions,it is necessary to use meteorological data representing the stable climate environment of the region to estimate the long-term power generation of the photovoltaic power generation system.At present,when estimating long-term power generation,most of the short-term weather data such as the measured weather data of the area in recent years and satellite inversion data are used.These short-term data cannot reflect the long-term stable climate conditions in the region,and the power generation calculated by them is very one-sided.Therefore,it is very important to propose a method for selecting meteorological data suitable for potential evaluation of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems.A typical meteorological year can well reflect the most representative year’s meteorological data in a meteorological cycle in the region,and this data can be used to evaluate the development potential of photovoltaic systems in different regions.This paper first uses the meteorological and power generation data of photovoltaic power stations to determine the meteorological elements that have a greater impact on photovoltaic power generation through analysis of related factors.The analysis results show that solar radiation,sunshine hours,temperature,and relative humidity have a greater impact on power generation.Meteorological elements.Then according to these meteorological elements,Sandia method,Danish method and average value method are used to select the typical meteorological years of 4 cities across the country.By comparing the monthly average value of each meteorological element in the three typical meteorological years,the comprehensive error and the relative standard of simulated power generation are compared.Deviations,determine the typical weather year selection method suitable for the evaluation of the development potential of distributed photovoltaic systems.The comparison results show that the Sandia method has the smallest comprehensive error,and the annual power generation simulation result is closer to the long-term average annual power generation.The Sandia method is combined with solar radiation and sunshine duration.The typical meteorological year selected by the four meteorological elements of data,temperature,and relative humidity is more suitable for the evaluation of the development potential of distributed photovoltaic systems,and this method is used to select the typical meteorological years of 90 cities across the country.In order to study the application of a typical weather year in the evaluation of the development potential of photovoltaic systems,PVsyst software was used to establish a distributed photovoltaic power generation system model with an installed capacity of100kW in 90 cities across the country.The annual power generation in different regions of the country,and the power generation cost of the system in different resource areas across the country is also calculated.The calculation results show that the highest annual power generation capacity of this system in 90 cities and regions in the country is215654kWh,the lowest is 75748kWh,and the average is 141780kWh.The power generation in western Mengxi,Qinghai,and Tibet is relatively high,and the power generation in southeastern China is less.Among them,Chongqing,The power generation in Guizhou,Hunan,and Jiangxi is far below the average level;the national average power generation cost is 0.436 yuan/kWh,and the average power generation cost in Type I,II,and III resource areas is 0.323 yuan/kWh,0.406 yuan/kWh,0.523 yuan/kWh Compared with the benchmark electricity price,Category I resource areas can achieve all positive returns,while Category II resource areas have poor returns.Although Category III areas have high power generation costs,their on-grid power prices are also higher than those of Category I and II areas.The net income of the photovoltaic industry in some areas is It is also a positive value.The evaluation results show that the typical weather year selected by Sandia method has good applicability in the evaluation of the development potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems.In order to study a typical meteorological year suitable for the evaluation of the development potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems,this paper proposes a method to select a typical meteorological year by combining four meteorological elements of solar radiation,sunshine hours,temperature,and relative humidity using Sandia method.It can provide long-term stable meteorological data in different regions,scientifically and reasonably estimate the long-term power generation of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems in different regions of the country,and provide data support for the large-scale establishment of photovoltaic power generation systems.At the same time,it can provide a reference for the selection of meteorological data when evaluating the development potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems,and improve the accuracy of potential evaluation.