Modeling Of Overall Levelized Cost Of Energy For Wind Power And Its Application In Multiple Development Modes

China's wind energy resources are mainly distributed in the three northern regions far away from the load centre.Large-scale centralized development and long-distance transmission have become an important way for China's wind power development and accommodation.Meanwhile,due to the random fluctuation of wind power,large-scale wind power integration will increase the reserve capacity and fast-ramping power source needed for the safe and stable operation of the power system.Both of these will inevitably incur substantial additional costs.However,the Levelized Cost of Energy,which is widely used at present,does not cover the above new costs,so it is difficult to calculate the economy of wind power accommodation comprehensively and scientifically.Therefore,this article,taking the system theory as the core idea,carry out the research of "conceptual design?calculation method?scene analysis" surrounding the overall cost of wind power.The research provides the means of quantitative analysis for improving the economy of large-scale wind power and formulating reasonable policy of electricity price.Main contributions include:(1)The concept and mathematical model of Overall Levelized Cost of Energy(OLCOE)for wind power are presented.The models of levelized generation cost,transmission cost and integration cost of wind power are established respectively.The model of wind power integration cost quantifies the cost of auxiliary service(balance cost,backup cost)and the profile cost caused by the reduction of conventional power's full load hours.It provides a scientific and comprehensive quantitative means to study the economy of wind power accommodation under the scenario of high wind power integration proportion.Taking the scene of Hami Wind Power Base supplying wind power to central provinces for example,the proposed concept and cost model is verified.The results show that the OLCOE is significantly higher than the traditional generation cost at each integration proportion of wind power,and increases rapidly with the rise of the integration proportion,which illustrates the necessity of the OLCOE modelling.Under different integration proportion of wind power,the share of generation cost,integration cost and transmission cost in the OLCOE will change fundamentally,which indicates that large-scale wind power and its substitution effect on conventional plants have a significant impact on the operation of the power system and the economy of power generation by conventional plants.(2)A clustering method for wind power fluctuation process based on variable-window algorithm and a modelling method of power system operation cost based on the deep neural network is proposed.First of all,in order to finely portray the operating cost of the power system under different scenarios of wind power fluctuation,a two-layer classification model of wind power fluctuation process based on swinging door and k-means algorithm is established,while considering the holistic waveform and fluctuation details of the wind power time series,the annual wind power data is divided into several typical categories with different lengths of time.Then,a production simulation model for the renewable-energy power system containing wind/photovoltaic/thermal/storage is established to accurately quantify the economic parameters of the power system operation under different wind power fluctuation scenarios and integration proportions,so as to provide a sufficient number of training sample sets with comprehensive operation scenarios for data-driven cost modelling.Finally,a data-driven modelling method for power system operation cost considering the volatility of wind power is proposed,and a mapping model based on a deep neural network among wind power fluctuation,wind power integration proportion and power system operation cost is established.A German power system is taken as an example to verify the proposed method.The results show that the method can accurately simulate the economy of the power system operation under different wind power scenarios,the calculation error of thermal power operation cost in each season and each scenario is 3%-12%,and the calculation error of the total operation cost of the power system is 4%-18%.(3)Based on the above study of OLCOE modelling,contraposing three typical development scenarios of wind power,the components and their distribution structure,key influencing factors and their sensitivity of OLCOE for wind power under different integration proportions are compared and studied,including large wind power base in long-distance transmission scenario,offshore wind power development scenarios,low-wind-speed wind power development scenarios.The results show that the OLCOE of wind power under the three development scenarios increases almost linearly with the rise of the integration proportion of wind power,and their growth rates are similar.However,the share of each type of cost in the OLCOE is different,that is,the key components of the OLCOE for wind power under different development scenarios differ greatly.Under the three scenarios,the proportion of wind power integration cost increases continuously with the rise of integration proportion.The utilization hours of wind power,transmission distance and capacity confidence have different effects on the OLCOE of wind power.The above research conclusions can provide data support and basis for the formulation of the development strategy of wind power,the formulation of the reasonable pricing mechanism and the accurate calculation for the cost of wind power project in the future,which is of great significance to support the economical and healthy development of large-scale wind power in China.