Research On China’s Export Potential Of Mechanical And Electrical Products To ASEAN Countries Under The Belt And Road Initiative

In 2013,President Xi Jinping first proposed the "Belt and Road" cooperation initiative and strategic concept,which aims to promote common development with countries along the route and promote the process of trade globalization.The ten ASEAN countries,as the gateway to the maritime Silk Road in China,are important strategic areas for China’s "Belt and Road" initiative.With the rapid development and continuous transformation and upgrading of China’s industrial enterprises,the mechanical and electrical manufacturing industry has occupied most of China’s export share.In the context of the "Belt and Road",it is of great significance to study China’s mechanical and electrical products on the issue of export potential of ASEAN countries.This paper first analyzes theoretically the influential factors of the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products exports to ASEAN countries,and the current status of China’s mechanical and electrical products exports to ASEAN countries.In the empirical analysis section,based on the traditional trade gravity model,an expanded trade gravity model is constructed after introducing institutional variables.Using 2052 panel data composed of nine countries in China and ASEAN during the period of 2000-2018,the study of various factors on China’s mechanical and electrical products in ASEAN countries Impact of export value.Through research,we found that China’s mechanical and electrical products have a higher level of economic development,higher trade freedom,lower government scale,higher government integrity,and relatively close distances,especially in neighboring ASEAN countries.At the same time,The higher China’s economic development level,the greater the export value of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN countries.Through the regression results,we get the regression equation and calculate the estimated export value.The ratio of the actual export value to the estimated export value is used to calculate the trade potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN exports.By calculating the potential value,we can draw the following conclusions: First,at present,China’s export potential of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN countries is between 0.8-1.2,all of which are trading potential mining types,indicating that the export potential of Chinese mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN countries is still There is a lot of room for development.Secondly,after the "Belt and Road" initiative was proposed,the trade potential value increased compared to before the proposal,indicating that the "Belt and Road" initiative helps China’s export of mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN countries’ trade potential increase.Finally,this article gives reference suggestions and countermeasures on how to increase the export potential of China’s mechanical and electrical products to ASEAN in the context of the "Belt and Road".