| Since joining the World Trade Organization,China’s electromechanical industry has been integrated into the global industrial and value chains,and the scale of trade has expanded rapidly.The countries along the "Belt and Road" are mainly developing and emerging economies,which are in a period of rapid economic growth and transformation and are in need of reform and transformation.Electromechanical products can not only meet the needs of infrastructure construction,but also drive the improvement of science and technology,so in the process of accelerating economic and social development and modernizing their countries,a huge market for electromechanical products has been formed.Since the "One Belt and One Road"initiative was put forward,China’s mechanical and electrical industry has been rapidly implementing the "One Belt and One Road" initiative,and the economic and trade cooperation between industrial enterprises and countries along the "One Belt and One Road" has been deepening.Export trade has been growing steadily and with remarkable results.The impact of economic and trade friction between China and the United States and the epidemic,China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products are also facing more intense competition and more uncertainty.The open,multilateral and inclusive spirit and principles embodied in the "One Belt and One Road" initiative not only play an important role in opposing protectionism and the wave of anti-globalization,but also provide impetus and support for the steady development of China’s electromechanical trade and foreign trade.Therefore,against this background,it is important to strengthen economic and trade relations with countries along the Belt and Road,to maintain the existing advantages of China’s exports of electromechanical products to countries along the "Belt and Road",to identify the factors affecting exports of electromechanical products,and to explore the potential of exports of electromechanical products.It is of great theoretical significance to enrich the existing research,and of great practical significance to expand China’s exports of electromechanical products and ensure the steady rise of China’s foreign trade.Through combing through the existing literature,it is found that the current research on China’s trade in electromechanical products with the "Belt and Road" countries is mainly limited to a specific country or a specific region,and lacks analysis on the whole scope of the "Belt and Road",and all of them are at the aggregate level.In addition,in terms of factors influencing export trade potential,most of them are traditional and basic factors such as GDP,geographical distance and population,etc.An effective expansion of the influencing factors is conducive to more targeted policy recommendations.Based on this,this paper makes the following innovations:it expands the scope of the study to include all countries along the Belt and Road;it subdivides the study to the product level,classifying mechanical and electrical products according to HS codes;it enriches the influencing factors and proposes novel and practically meaningful indicators from the perspective of the "five links".The paper also enriches the influencing factors and proposes new and practically meaningful indicators from the perspective of "five links".Firstly,this paper presents a statistical and comparative analysis of the current trade situation of China’s exports of electromechanical products to the "Belt and Road"countries from four aspects:total exports,commodity structure,regional structure and trade mode,using the latest data from the UN trade database.The results show that the total export value of electromechanical products has been growing steadily,but there are also problems such as a more concentrated commodity structure and regional structure,resulting in a higher dependence on a certain product and region,which is not conducive to risk diversification,and a low value-added technology due to the reliance on processing trade.The paper then discusses the factors influencing the export of electromechanical products,taking into account the existing literature and the current export situation,and classifies them based on objective natural influences and subjective human influences.This paper uses Frontier 4.1 software to analyze the data of 61 countries along the Belt and Road from 2012 to 2019(three countries,Palestine,Syria and Iraq,are excluded due to missing data)using a time-varying stochastic frontier model.The explanatory variables in the stochastic frontier gravity model are all significant,especially the variable of China’s total population,which has the greatest influence and is negatively correlated,indicating that the increase in China’s domestic population is not conducive to the export of electromechanical products;in the inefficiency model,the degree of monetary freedom is insignificant and the degree of financial freedom has little influence on China’s export of electromechanical products,in addition,special attention should be paid to the hindering effect of political stability,which may be due to this is because the increase in political stability represents to some extent the progress of the country’s development stage,so it begins to consider trade protection,increasing tariffs and non-tariff barriers and other measures to hinder the entry of foreign products.Finally,the paper measures the trade efficiency,trade potential and room for improvement of the 61 countries along the Belt and Road according to the regression results,and ranks the countries in descending order of trade potential.The results show that the overall trade efficiency of China’s exports of electromechanical products to the"Belt and Road" countries is 0.62 on average,which is a medium level,and there is still a large trade potential waiting to be explored;among them,India,Vietnam and Russia have great trade potential,while Bhutan,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Moldova and other countries are among the top countries in terms of trade potential.The trade potential of Bhutan,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Moldova and other countries is among the highest;from a regional perspective,the trade efficiency of Southeast Asia is the highest,but the future upgradeable space is low,so new export markets should be sought;the trade potential of Mongolia and Russia is the highest,and the trade potential of China’s exports of electrical and mechanical products should be fully released in these two countries;the future upgradeable space of South Asia is the highest,and communication and exchanges with countries in this region should be actively strengthened in order to open up future A good foundation should be laid for opening up the future export market for electromechanical products.Based on the description of the current situation in the above statistical analysis and the conclusions drawn from the empirical analysis,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from three perspectives:macro,meso and micro:For the government,it is necessary to optimize the international trade environment and expand exports.potential;improve the early warning mechanism for technical barriers to trade,and deepen economic and trade cooperation.For industry organizations,it is necessary to diversify the selection of products and markets,improve competition strategies,expand the scale of the electromechanical industry,and strengthen technological innovation.For export enterprises,it is necessary to follow the trend and expand the supply of green and low-carbon products;implement brand strategy and enhance the international reputation of products. |
PDF Full Text Request