Research On The Export Potential Of China’s Mechanical And Electrical Products From A Perspective Of B&R

Based on the “Belt and Road” background,this article ranks the trade volume of my country’s electromechanical products exported to countries in the world,and selects 36 countries whose trade volume with my country’s electromechanical products exceeds the overall average of countries in the world as analysis objects.Statistics and analysis of China’s export of electromechanical products through collating relevant data,and on this basis,the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model analysis of relevant data of 36 countries is carried out,and the influencing factors affecting the export volume of China’s electromechanical products are obtained.Then estimate the export trade efficiency of electromechanical products in 18 countries along the “Belt and Road” and 18 countries not along the line,and then calculate the export potential coefficient of electromechanical products to 36 countries and the trade potential types of 36 countries based on empirical results sort.Taking 2013 as the policy inflection point,we can judge whether the “Belt and Road” policy has a positive impact on the trade of electromechanical products in countries along the route.The research results are as follows:1.Through the analysis of the current situation,it is found that the export trade scale of China’s electromechanical products has shown an overall growth trend in recent years.The export trade is mainly based on processing trade.Commodities of chapters 84 and 85 are the main product types of China’s electromechanical products.The main areas of trade are Asia and Europe,and the export destination countries are mainly developed countries.2.By constructing a random frontier gravity model,it is found that the export trade of China’s electromechanical products is largely affected by the “Belt and Road” policy.Different influencing factors have different impacts on the export trade of China’s electromechanical products: GDP per capita increased,the population of the export destination country increased,there is a common border between the two countries,the export destination country has high political stability,and the export destination country is the Asian Investment Bank Member countries and the signing of FTA agreements with China and other factors have a positive impact on the export trade development of China’s electromechanical products;however,the increase in China’s population size and the increase in the tariff burden will have a greater negative impact on the development of export trade of electromechanical products effect.