Evolution Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity During Rapid Urbanization In Guiyang

Water is the basic resource that support the balance of natural ecosystems and human survival.With the rapid advancement of urbanization across the country,the expansion of cities,large population growth,and changes in industrial structure will all affect the water resources carrying capacity.Water resources carrying capacity in karst areas with special geological backgrounds will face huge challenges,at the same time,the water resources carrying capacity will also affect the development of urbanization,so the coordinated development between urbanization and water resources carrying capacity is an important foundation for the sustainable development of cities in karst areas.This article takes Guiyang as a research area,systematically collects data on urbanization and water resources in Guiyang from 2005 to 2017,and uses the ecological footprint method,correlation analysis,set pair analysis(SPA)model,set pair subtractive situation,partial connection number,and coupling coordination degree models and other methods clarify Guiyang's rapid urbanization and water resource utilization and their impact relationships from 2005 to 2017,reveal the evolution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity and diagnose and identify vulnerability factors and explore the coordinated development relationship between rapid urbanization and water resources carrying capacity The main findings are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2017,population,economy,society,and land urbanization level of Guiyang have been continuously improved;industrial water use in urban water structure has decreased,urban public water use has increased,and the ecological footprint of water resources has been in an ecological surplus.With the development of urbanization in Guiyang,the overall utilization efficiency of water resources has been improved,and the efficiency of comprehensive economic and industrial water use has improved significantly.(2)From 2005 to 2017,the water resources carrying capacity of Guiyang is in a critical overload state in rapid urbanization process,and it showes a periodical evolution characteristic: the evaluation level is in a rising and fluctuating state,and it continues to tend to overload from 2005 to 2011.Since the water-saving society is constructed in 2011,the evaluation level is gradually decreases,and the water resources carrying capacity continues to improve,which indicates that the construction of a water-saving society would help cities in karst areas to improve the water resources carrying capacity.(3)In the identification of the state of water resources,the supporting capacity system is in a poor state.In the subsystem evaluation level of the water resources carrying capacity,the supporting capacity system fluctuates in a critical overload state;the pressure and regulating force system show periodic evolution characteristics,and the evaluation levels of both subsystems have dropped significantly after 2011.The pressure system fluctuates near the critical overload,and the control force system is lower than the critical overload and developes towards a loadable state.The overall evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Guiyang has been improving because both the pressure and control capacity system have significantly reduced the evaluation level after 2011.(4)The identification results of the vulnerability factors of water resources carrying capacity indicate that a large increase in population,insufficient per capita water resources and per capita water supply,and inadequate agricultural irrigation quotas in the urban context of limited water resources are the main reasons for the weak water resources carrying capacity in Guiyang.Consolidating the construction of a water-saving society,improving the efficiency of water resources utilization,and strengthening the protection and utilization of groundwater strategic reserve resources are important ways for improving the water resources carrying capacity of Guiyang.(5)The coupling relationship between rapid urbanization and water resources carrying capacity is a two-way impact mechanism.Based on the coupling degree coordination model,the coupling relationship between rapid urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Guiyang has shifted from the running-in phase to the high-level coupling phase and presented the transition from primary coordination to moderate coordination to high coordination.Based on the set-pair analysis and coordination model,rapid urbanization and water resources carrying capacity have gradually changed from "poor comprehensive coordination" to "convergent good coordinated development".Judging from the evaluation results of the two coordinated development evaluation models,the coordinated development relationship between rapid urbanization and water resources carrying capacity in Guiyang shows a continuously improving trend.