Research On The Coupling Coordination Of Water-Land-Energy-Food System In Gansu Province

Water,land,energy,and food are essential for for human survival,production and life of the basic production materials,and are also indispensable basic resources for social and economic development.How to realize water,land,energy and food systems(WLEF Nexus)coordinated development has become a hot research topic that has emerged in recent years.Gansu Province,which is located in the western region of China with low economic and social development,is the core node of the“Silk Road” economic belt and is a strategic link between the “Belt and Road”.Although the land area is vast,there are not many high-quality land resources,and the available land are scarce;the climate is arid,the rainfall is scarce and the temporal and spatial distribution is uneven,and water resources are scarce.However,food production cannot be separated from water resources.and water resource utilization is inseparable from the support of energy.With economic development and population growth,the demand for resources continues to increase.How to achieve the coordinated development of the WLEF system is a key issue to achieve regional sustainable development.Therefore,Therefore,by constructing the WLEF system evaluation index system,and using the comprehensive evaluation index method and the coupling coordination model,this paper analyzes the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the WLEF system in Gansu Province from the two aspects of time and space.At the same time,the gray prediction model to forecast the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the WLEF system from 2019 to2050;then use the system dynamics method to simulate the changes of the WLEF system in Gansu Province,and set up different scenarios based on the simulation results to explore the most suitable WLEF system in Gansu Province Development model,and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The WLEF system comprehensive evaluation index,coupling degree,and coupling coordination degree in Gansu Province are unevenly distributed in time and space,and there are spatial differences.From 2000 to 2018,the comprehensive evaluation index,coupling degree,and coupling coordination degree of Gansu Province WLEF system were low,and all showed an increasing trend;Gansu Province WLEF system comprehensive evaluation index generally showed Hexi,Longnan region > Gannan,Longzhong,and Longdong region;The spatial distribution of the coupling degree and the coupling coordination degree is consistent,basically presenting Hexi region,Longnan region >Part of Longzhong region >Gannan,Longdong,Longzhong region.(2)The change trend of WLEF system coupling degree and coupling coordination degree is consistent with the change trend of water,energy,and food systems,and is opposite to the change trend of land system.Among them,agricultural water consumption,effective irrigated area,grain yield,grain yield per hectare,etc.are significantly positively correlated with coupling degree and coupling coordination degree,and grain sown area and cultivated land area are significantly negatively correlated with coupling degree and coupling coordination degree.In 2050,the WLEF system in Gansu Province will achieve a high-level coupling stage and a high-quality coordinated development stage.(3)Comparing the simulation results of different scenarios,the comprehensive scenario is the most suitable development model for the WLEF system in Gansu Province.Based on the analysis of different scenarios,the following suggestions are put forward: appropriate development of water resources,control of water use quotas,strict implementation of the “occupation-compensation balance” system,strict control of the scale of construction land,actively promote land reclamation and consolidation,and actively develop new and new energy sources and optimize Energy structure,the introduction of high-yield,drought-tolerant food crops,relying on agricultural science and technology,while implementing farmland protection subsidies(natural disaster loss subsidies)and agricultural machinery purchase subsidies and other measures to increase farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain,and at the same time strengthen the agricultural sector and water conservancy sector Cooperation among various departments,including the energy sector,to ensure the coordinated development of water,land,energy,and food.