Research On The Coupling Coordination Of Economy-recourse-environment System In China

Survival and development are the eternal theme of human life.With the sustained and stable development of China's economy,the consumption of resources and energy increases constantly,and the damage to the ecological environment becomes more and more obvious,which aggravates the contradiction among economic development,resources and energy and the ecological environment,and also lays hidden dangers for the future socialist modernization and the construction of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.The change of our social principal contradiction marks a new step in China's socialist construction.The research on the relationship between economy,resources and environment has become one of the key issues to be considered when China fully implements the strategy of sustainable development,promotes balanced economic,political,cultural,social,and ecological progress and coordinated implementation of the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy.To explore the level of the coupling coordination development of economy,resources and environment in China,it is necessary to combine qualitative and quantitative methods,and to summarize the characteristics,internal mechanism and spatio-temporal evolution pattern of the coupling coordination development under the guidance of scientific theories and methods,so as to provide valuable references for further research and for formulation and implementation of relevant policies in the future.Based on the coupling coordination theory,sustainable development theory,spatial econometric model and system dynamics theory as the main reference,on the basis of related concepts,we firstly build the economy-resources-environment(ERE)system coupling coordination degree model in order to measure the coupling coordination degree of 30 provinces in Chinese mainland(except Tibet)from 2003 to 2018,and according to the calculated result of the national and provincial coupling coordination development stage and the specific type,and calculate their spatial autocorrelation.Then based on the coupling coordination degree model,a panel data spatial econometric model is established to conduct regression analysis on the interaction among economic development,resources and energy and ecological environment,and analyze the dynamic mechanism among them.Finally,according to the mutual relationship among economy,resources and environment,we establish the dynamics model and set four scenarios including benchmark,slow development,economic recovery and sustainable development,so as to analyze and forecast the possible development trend in the future development process.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2003 to 2018,ERE system coupling coordination development level increase year by year in our country.Coupling coordination degree increased from 0.262 in 2003 to 0.502 in 2018,the main categories of coupled and coordinated development has transformed from moderate imbalance recession to barely coordinated development,and the specific types gradually transition from the underdeveloped economy type to the coordinated and synchronized type of economy,resources and environment.However,this kind of coordination is a temporary state of balance after the wane and wax from each other of resources energy and ecological environment score,and economic development score.The gap in the level of coupling and coordinated development among provinces and regions is obviously smaller than the gap in the level of economic development.From the point of view of provinces and regions,provinces and regions with similar level of coupling and coordinated development have agglomeration effect in economic geographical space,but the synergetic degree of coupling and coordinated development among provinces and regions still needs to be improved.(2)The coupled and coordinated development of China began to enter an inflection point in2017,This conclusion further confirms the correctness and great relevance of the conclusion put forward by the 19th National Congress that the principal contradiction in Chinese society has been transformed.For a long time,the improvement of economic development level is the main driving force to promote the degree of coupling coordination,after 2017,China has made remarkable achievements in economic development,however,the ensuing problems of resources and environment are becoming increasingly serious.Compared with resources energy and ecological environment,the growth trend of economic development has slowed down significantly and even fluctuated,if the economic development mode is not transformed as soon as possible,it will make the temporary equilibrium state of ERE system quickly broken,and even cause the development level and development stage of coupling and coordination to retrogress.(3)There exists a certain interaction among economy,resources and environment,and the direct effect is more obvious than the indirect effect.Resource has the strongest interaction on the other two aspects,while environment has a relatively weak interaction on the other two aspects.Economic development has a strong driving effect on the ecological environment,but has a weak effect on resources and energy.Resource endowment to economic development,and development quality to ecological environment has obvious negative direct effect,indirect effect and total effect,which hinders the coupling coordination and sustainable development of ERE system in China.(4)The simulation and scenario prediction results show that,firstly,under the baseline scenario and economic recovery scenario,China will continue to put economic development above resources energy and ecological environment in the future.Secondly,the scenario of slow development is the most likely development scenario in China in the future under the influence of the current development trend and the COVID-19,in which a relatively ideal resource and energy consumption and ecological environment quality are obtained at the expense of a certain economic growth rate.Finally,sustainable development scenario simulates the ideal development state and target scenario that China can achieve in the future,its economic aggregate is the highest of the four models,its total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions to peak in 2030 and 2026 respectively,but due to the limitation of some development conditions,contaminant net increment slightly higher than the benchmark scenario and slow development scenarios.The degree of orderly operation between economy,resources and environment leads to differences in the four development scenarios,and the one-sided pursuit of efficiency in a single aspect is bound to cause adverse effects on other aspects.