Research On The Low Carbon Energy System And Decision System Based On 3EDSS Platform

With the rapid development of social economy and the advancement of industrialization, resources shortage and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent. People pay more and more attention on the Low-carbon energy system (LCES) coordination development. Based on the feedback mechanisms of Resources-Environment-Economy-social systems and referred 3EDSS platform, the short for Energy-Economy-Environment Decision Support System Platform,for technical support, it makes use of SD and GM (1,1) theory technology, develops LCES (Low Carbon Energy System, LCES) decision support system model and provides the theoretical foundation and scientific basis for the government decision makers on the LCES development planning.This thesis mainly completes the following work:1. This thesis studies the development status of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional Resources-Environment-Economy-social systems.Based on least squares fitting method to establish the evolution of carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei, it can provide theoretical support for the establishment of LCES factor analysis model.2. Using SD theory, it defines system boundaries, analyzes the causal relationship between their internal subsystems and builts LCES causal structure system.3. Based on the constructed LCES causality diagram, selecting the main feedback links, it formates LCES system flow structure on SD and establishes LCES-SD model. It uses the analysis function of VensimPlus, analyses the causal structure, feedback structure and the results structure of system model.Then it complets the detailed design of function to construct the system results in the model.4. With the Matlab software in the tool library of 3EDSS platform,it takes GM (1,1) model theory into operable program, predicts energy structure of impact factor, technological progress, industrial structure influence factor of impact factor, birth and death rate and other variables in the LCES model of Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region, which provides data support for the operation of Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region LCES data model.5. Debugging and using the Vensim Plus tracking error and self checking function,based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region 2005-2011 data, "eleven five" planning and "twelve five" planning objectives, it establishes the Beijing-Tianjin -Hebei region LCES simulation and prediction model and provides support for the simulation and planning simulation analysis.6. Using the SyntheSim function, VensimPlus control parameters, repeated debugging and running, it can get four different scenarios of energy saving and emission reduction and provide precise support to decision makers.7. The function and process of model database of 3EDSS platform was designed, also the developed LCES models were integrated into the model base, the processing results of models were displayed in the 3EDSS platform.