| As the primary industry in China,agriculture is the basic industry to ensure economic development and social stability.Since the reform and opening up,China's agriculture has made great progress,but it has also caused a series of problems:decreased quality and quantity of cultivated land,aggravated agricultural non-point source pollution and so on.Since 2004,the No.1 Central Document has focused on "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" for 18 consecutive years,highlighting the important position of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" in the stage of socialist modernization.Agricultural production efficiency is an effective tool to measure the high quality and sustainable development of agriculture.However,agricultural production efficiency only pays attention to the economic output in the process of agricultural production,often neglects the ecological environment factors closely related to it,and fails to truly reflect the performance of agricultural growth.Therefore,the agricultural eco-efficiency,which takes the ecological environment factors into consideration,has gradually become an important tool to measure the coordination and sustainable development of agricultural economy and ecological environment,to find a meeting point between "efficiency" and "ecology".Hebei province is a big agricultural province,this paper based on the basic concept of the agricultural ecological efficiency and related theory,from the resources,labor,energy investment,social,economic and ecological output of constructing evaluation index system,using the super efficiency of SBM model is calculated from 2005 to 2018 in hebei province agriculture ecological efficiency,comprehensive analysis from the perspective of time and space double measurement results,And explore the causes of the loss of efficiency.By using the tools of Eviews and ArcGIS,the temporal evolution and spatial pattern evolution characteristics of agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province were analyzed from a macro perspective.Using traditional and spatial Markov transfer matrices,the internal evolution characteristics of agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province were described from the micro point of view,and the long-term evolution trend was predicted.The spatial autocorrelation tool of GeoDA software was used to analyze the agglomeration level of agricultural eco-efficiency in China,and the spatial econometric tool was used to explore the main factors affecting agricultural eco-efficiency,as well as their action mechanism,strength and direction.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)The comprehensive evaluation results of agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province show that:First,the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province is at a middle and high level,with great regional differences.From 2005 to 2018,the agricultural eco-efficiency of Hebei Province was 0.8873,and nearly 30%of the 141 counties reached the effective level.The agricultural eco-efficiency of Chongli District was the highest,reaching 1.5781,and the lowest was that of Shahe City,only 0.492.With the passage of time and the change of the external environment,the agricultural ecological efficiency showed a trend of large up-small fluctuating down-and small fluctuating up-small fluctuating.Second,according to the regional division,the agricultural ecological efficiency was in the order of north,south,east and central Hebei.The growth rate of agricultural ecological efficiency was 18.3%in northern Hebei,16.46%in eastern Hebei,12.91%in central Hebei,and 3.47%in southern Hebei.Thirdly,the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province shows the development of grade aggregation.From 2005 to 2018,the number of low,middle and low level counties decreased,while the number of middle and high level counties increased significantly.The main reasons for the loss of agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province are the excessive electricity consumption,the total power input of agricultural machinery and the insufficient agricultural output value.(2)The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and prediction analysis results of agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province show that:First,the agricultural ecological efficiency in Hebei Province develops well as a whole,with more concentrated spatial distribution and more obvious direction.From the perspective of macroscopic spatial and temporal distribution pattern,the spatial imbalance of agricultural eco-efficiency decreased from 2005 to 2018,but the phenomenon of polarization always existed.The center of gravity of the standard deviation ellipse of agricultural eco-efficiency is relatively stable,the distribution range is reduced,the short axis length decreases,the long axis length increases,and the shape index decreases as a whole.Second,the type transfer of agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province has a strong stability,which is significantly affected by the geographical neighborhood conditions,and there is a phenomenon of club convergence.From the microscopic spatio-temporal evolution characteristics,the probability of no state transfer of agricultural eco-efficiency in any adjacent years in Hebei Province is at least 52.97%,and the maximum probability of state transfer is 29.69%,which shows strong stability.The probability of keeping at the lowest grade and the highest grade is the largest,and there is a phenomenon of differentiation towards two grades.The maximum probability of "cross-level" transfer is 13.7%,and the minimum is 0.77%.There is a synergistic relationship between agricultural eco-efficiency and agricultural eco-efficiency in county area.Geographical neighborhood type has a heterogeneous effect on the transition of agricultural eco-efficiency state.The spatial pattern of agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province showed a "club convergence"phenomenon of "high agglomeration,low agglomeration,high promotion low,low inhibition high".Third,from the perspective of long-term evolution trend,it is adjacent to low-grade counties.In the future,the number of low-grade,middle-low grade counties is obviously more,and the space for efficiency improvement is limited.Adjacent to the high-grade counties,the agricultural eco-efficiency converges to the middle and high grade,which has a great potential for improvement,but it is difficult to realize the large-scale transfer to the high grade.(3)Analysis results of influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province showed that:First,through global autocorrelation analysis,except 2007,2011 and 2012,Moran's I index of agricultural eco-efficiency in other years was positive and passed the significance test,which indicated that agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2018 was not a random distribution,but a positive spatial autocorrelation.Namely,the spatial characteristics of agglomeration of regions with higher agricultural ecological efficiency level and regions with lower agricultural ecological efficiency level.Second,the key factors affecting agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province during the research period include income level of rural residents,urbanization level,industrial sturcture,technology level,disaster resistance ability and fertilizer input intensity.Among them,the income level of rural residents,industrial structure,technical level and disaster resistance ability have a positive effect on the agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province.The explanatory strength from the largest to the least is the industrial structure,income level of rural residents,disaster resistance ability and technology level.Urbanization level and chemical fertilizer input intensity had a negative effect on agricultural eco-efficiency in Hebei Province,and urbanization level had a stronger effect. |
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