Research On High Quality Development Early Warning Model

Since China's reform and opening up,China's rapid economic development,and make a great contribution to the world economic development,but the regional unbalanced development between insufficient problems were revealed,until 2017,when the communist party of China put forward for the first time in 19 times national convention of the Chinese economy at the high-quality development stage,show that China's economy has overtaken high quality development stage of rapid growth stage.High-quality development is the fundamental embodiment of the new concept of development,the inevitable requirement to adapt to the changing principal contradiction in Chinese society,the active choice to adapt to the new normal of economic development,and the only way to build a modernized economic system.The Yangtze River Economic Belt is the main intersection zone of "One Belt And One Road" in China.It is of great significance to study the high-quality development status of the Yangtze River Economic Belt for the overall understanding and grasp of the highquality development status of China.This article will follow the comprehensive and sustainable development thought,from the economy,science and technology,environmental protection,education,natural endowment defined five aspects,such as high quality development of connotation and denotation,and 11 provinces(cities)in the Yangtze river economic belt of index data between 2008 and 2018,for example,to build high quality development evaluation index system to analyze and describe the developing actuality of the Yangtze river economic belt with high quality and level.Firstly,the group AHP method was used to calculate the weight of the first-level indicators.Secondly,the factor analysis weight method and entropy weight method were used to calculate the weight of the second-level and third-level indicators.Then,the comprehensive score of the 11 provinces(cities)was evaluated,compared and analyzed.Again,for the five level high quality development,the contribution rate of indicators for the specific analysis,analysis of the index development status in the development of high quality,and finally,using the unit root test and granger test to select leading indicators,the establishment of index system for high quality development of early warning model,using the five indicators of growth,value and value,set up warning limit and warning instance analysis,and compared with the traditional ARIMA model to predict the comparing with the results of 11 provinces(municipalities)alert,and high quality of the Yangtze river economic belt development level to make objective evaluation and analysis,is given to 11 provinces(municipalities)concrete Suggestions on the development of high quality.