Study On Evaluation And Early Warning Of Groundwater Resource Carrying Capacity In Henan Province

Groundwater is an important part of water resources,which plays a very important role in ensuring the life,production and water supply of urban and rural residents in China,supporting economic and social development and maintaining a virtuous cycle of ecological environment.Groundwater is an important source of water supply in Henan Province,which plays a very important role in supporting the stable development of the province's economy and society and ensuring the food security of Henan Province.Due to the excessive exploitation of groundwater,the groundwater resources in some areas of henan province have been overloaded for a long time,and the ecological environment in some areas has deteriorated and the groundwater overexploitation has been serious,which has caused a series of ecological and environmental geological problems,and has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of henan province.Therefore,need to master the bearing condition of groundwater resource in henan province,in the next few years in henan province of groundwater resources carrying capacity in early warning,for the development of the province's governance of groundwater management,protection and restoration policy measures such as to provide reference,to realize the sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in henan province,to promote groundwater resources coordination with economic and social development is of great significance.Guided by the theory of water resources carrying capacity and the earlywarning theory of water resources carrying capacity,this paper takes Henan Province as the research object to carry out the research on the evaluation and early-warning of groundwater resources carrying capacity.The main research contents and achievements are as follows.(1)this paper expounds the concept of groundwater resources carrying capacity,parsing the connotation and characteristics of the system analysis of the groundwater resources system,economic and social system,mutual constraint,mutual relationship between the ecological environment system,the complex relation of mutual promotion,to identify the influence factors of the groundwater resources carrying capacity,for the construction of groundwater resources carrying capacity evaluation index system laid a foundation.Starting with the concept and content of the early warning,the concept of the early warning of the carrying capacity of groundwater resources is defined,and the main content and basic framework of the early warning of the carrying capacity of groundwater resources are defined.(2)Based on the identification of influencing factors of groundwater resource carrying capacity and the entity-correlation model,the evaluation index system of groundwater resource carrying capacity in Henan Province was constructed.The method of "single index quantization,multi-index synthesis and multi-criteria integration"(SMI-P)was introduced to establish the quantitative model of groundwater resource carrying capacity,and the index weights were determined by the entropyweight method and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the multi-factor coupling evaluation method of groundwater resource carrying capacity was proposed.The screening method and process of early warning index system were summarized,the early warning index system of groundwater resource carrying capacity was constructed,the early warning index prediction method based on GM(1,1)grey system model was established,and the early warning method of groundwater resource carrying capacity was put forward.Based on B/S framework,a platform for groundwater resource carrying capacity evaluation and early warning information has been developed,which integrates the functions of data collection and management,groundwater resource carrying capacity evaluation,groundwater resource carrying capacity early warning,result analysis and display,etc.(3)The characteristic node value and weight of the evaluation index of groundwater resource carrying capacity of Henan Province were reasonably determined,and the groundwater resource carrying capacity of Henan Province and other cities was evaluated from 2010 to 2019.The results show that during the period from 2010 to 2019,the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in Henan Province generally fluctuates and increases,and the carrying capacity is relatively low in the critical overloading state.The groundwater carrying capacity of Henan Province presents a spatial distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north,high in the west and low in the east.The groundwater carrying capacity of Xinyang City and Sanmenxia City is relatively high,while that of Anyang City and Kaifeng City is relatively low.(4)Based on the early warning index data of groundwater resource carrying capacity of Henan Province from 2010 to 2019,the early warning index values of 2021 and 2022 in Henan Province and other cities were predicted,and the early warning results of groundwater resource carrying capacity of Henan Province and other cities in 2021 and 2022 were calculated.The results show that the early warning level of groundwater resource carrying capacity in Henan Province in 2021 and 2022 is light alarm,and the early warning level of groundwater resource carrying capacity in all cities in 2021 and 2022 is light alarm or medium alarm,only Sanmenxia City in 2022 is no alarm.(5)Suggestions are put forward to improve the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in Henan Province,including vigorously promoting the development of industrial and domestic water saving,vigorously developing agricultural water saving irrigation,actively implementing surface water replacement,implementing groundwater conservation and remediation engineering measures;Perfecting regulations and regulations on groundwater management,implementing doublecontrol management of groundwater volume and water level,strict management of water intake permission,strict management of sealing and filling of groundwater intake Wells,perfecting economic regulation mechanism,and strengthening the construction of monitoring ability.