Measurement Of Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency And Its Influencing Factors In Hubei Province

In recent years,the problem of global climate change has attracted extensive attention from all walks of life.The fourth assessment report issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)shows that the global surface temperature is likely to rise by 1.8~4.0? in the next 100 years,which will lead to a series of ecological environmental disasters such as glacier melting,sea level rise,extreme weather,endangered rare animals and plants,etc.Although there are many reasons for climate change,carbon emissions from human activities play the most important role.Generally speaking,industry and service industry are the main drivers of carbon emissions,but the role played by fast-growing agriculture cannot be ignored.It is for this reason that the issue of agricultural carbon emissions has begun to receive close attention from various countries,and the implementation of agricultural low-carbon production to cope with climate change has gradually become a global consensus.As a traditional agricultural province in China,Hubei is known as the "hometown of fish and rice",but due to its high dependence on chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films and other agricultural materials,its agricultural production is relatively high in carbon to some extent.In view of this,on the basis of clarifying the current situation of its agricultural carbon emissions,this paper discusses its carbon emission efficiency characteristics and its influencing mechanism,with a view to providing necessary data support and theoretical reference for better implementing the green development strategy and accelerating the low-carbon transformation of Hubei's agricultural production.Specifically,this paper first systematically combs the existing research results in the field of agricultural carbon emissions,and scientifically constructs the agricultural carbon emissions measurement index system.On this basis,the agricultural carbon emissions are effectively measured and its temporal evolution and spatial differentiation characteristics are deeply analyzed.Then,the DEA-Malmquist index decomposition method is used to measure the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province,and its evolution rules and characteristics are clarified from two dimensions of time and space.At the same time,according to the "low-carbon" recognition principle,the relatively low-carbon or high-carbon agricultural production in Hubei cities and states has been recognized.Next,based on the relevant data collection and collation,Tobit model is used to empirically analyze the main factors that affect Hubei's agricultural carbon emission efficiency.Finally,combining the research conclusions and drawing on the relevant experience of domestic and foreign regions,a series of countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the low-carbon agricultural production in Hubei.Through systematic research,the following main research conclusions are obtained:(1)Hubei province's agricultural carbon emissions reached 15.0106 million tons in 2017,an increase of 26.95% over 2000(11.8238 million tons)and an average annual increase of 1.41%,showing a relatively obvious four-stage change characteristic of "continuous increase-continuous decrease-slow rise-fluctuating rise";The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions has been showing a downward trend.From the structural point of view,the carbon emissions from agricultural inputs and the total carbon emissions from rice cultivation both showed an upward trend,while the carbon emissions from livestock farming decreased slightly.Regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions among cities and states in Hubei Province are obvious,with Xiangyang having the highest total and Qianjiang the lowest.In terms of carbon emission intensity,Tianmen is the highest and Wuhan is the lowest.According to the difference of carbon emission composition,the 15 regions can be divided into 3 different types: agricultural material input-oriented,rice planting-oriented and balanced.Among them,rice planting-oriented regions are the most,while agricultural material input-oriented regions are the least.(2)Since 2011,the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hubei Province has fluctuated from year to year,but it is on the increase overall,with an average annual growth rate of 2.30%.According to the change trajectory,it can be divided into three different stages:continuous decline,continuous rise and continuous decline.In terms of growth factors,frontier technological progress has played a more important role than technological efficiency in improving the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Hubei Province.Further decomposition of technological efficiency shows that scale efficiency plays a greater role than pure technological efficiency.There are obvious regional differences in Hubei's agricultural carbon emission efficiency,with eight places such as Wuhan,Yichang and Suizhou showing an increasing trend in carbon emission efficiency while the other seven places showing a decreasing trend.According to the "low carbon" agricultural production identification principle,Huangshi,Shiyan,Yichang and other10 regions are "low carbon" regions,while Wuhan,Xiangyang and other 5 regions are "high carbon" regions.(3)Rural economic development,urbanization level and rural electricity consumption can promote agricultural carbon emission efficiency,while agricultural industrial structure can inhibit it.