The Influence Of National Risk On China’s Export To Countries Along "The Belt And Road"

Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,along with the rapid development of foreign trade,China has become the world’s largest exporting country and the second largest importing country,occupying a pivotal position in the international trade arena.Among them,China’s export trade is particularly important in China’s export-oriented economic development model.It is a pioneer in China’s economic rise and plays a role in the overall economic development of China.In 2013,President Xi Jinping’s "The Belt and Road" development initiative is an important development strategy for further deepening China’s opening-up and broadening China’s export trade channels in the new era.With the"The Belt and Road" initiative,China actively carries out export trade with countries along the "The Belt and Road" to solve domestic overcapacity,promote transformation and upgrading of enterprises,and provide new power for China’s economic development.However,"The Belt and Road" spans the three continents of Asia,Europe and Africa,including a large number of countries.The political and economic environment varies greatly from country to country.There are socialist,capitalist,developed,developing and least developed countries.Different political and economic environments in different countries hide high national risks.The existence of national risks will be a severe challenge for the smooth implementation of the "The Belt and Road" strategy and a major hidden danger in the implementation and construction of the "The Belt and Road" strategy in the future.The country must formulate effective risk prevention and control plans from the strategic perspective.The studies of national risks have long been known in the academic circles.From the initial political risk researches of a country to the studies of comprehensive risks including politics,economics and finance,scholars have introduced national risks into the field of international trade research,breaking the traditional research pattern of international trade theory.The research of national risks provides new thinking and direction for the study of international trade.Considering that the scholars on national risk mainly focus on the two aspects of international credit and international investment,there is relatively little research on export trade.At the same time,the research mainly focuses on the level of risk,the study on risk difference between different countries is relatively small.Therefore,this paper builds indicators to measures the level of national risk,studies the impact of national risk levels on China’s export trade.And further uses the Euclidean distance formula to measure the risk differences between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road",analyzing the differences.which is a beneficial supplement to the study of national risk and international trade relations,as well as also a useful discussion of national risk research.This paper combs the existing scholars’ research on national risk,and based on the theoretical analysis,dividing the national risk into two parts:political risk and economic-financial risk,and introduces it into the trade gravity model to expand the trade gravity model.Combining the availability of data with the representativeness of the sample,the panel data of the 48 countries along "The Belt and Road" from 2003 to 2016 were selected for empirical regression.Taking China’s export trade volume of the 48 countries along "The Belt and Road" as the dependent variable.Quantifying the national risk level of the sample countries,use it as the core independent variables.Taking the traditional GDP,population,and geographical distance as the control variables,the empirical regression will be carried out to test the impact of national risks and national risk differences on the trade of China’s exports along"The Belt and Road" countries.Under the theoretical analysis of the uncertainty of the national risk to the export trade,through empirical tests,it is found that the national risks of countries along "The Belt and Road" have significantly hindered China’s export trade.Combining theoretical analysis with empirical results,this paper proposes to formulate prevention and control measures of export risk from both the government and enterprises to ensure the smooth development of China’s export trade to countries along "The Belt and Road".