Research On The Effect Of OFDI Oriented To Countries Along The Belt And Road Route On China's Export Trade

In recent years,the global economic growth has slowed down,the trade protectionism has gained ground,and the trade frictions have increased gradually,which has caused a greater negative impact on the global investment and trade.Under this background,the economic and trade contact between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" is getting increasingly closer,and the investment and trade scale is expanding,which will play an important role in promoting the development,transformation and upgrading of China's economy.Therefore,the research on the effect of export trade of China with the countries along the "Belt and Road" boasts an important practical significance.Most countries along the "Belt and Road" have the advantages in resource endowments.The energy and metal mining industries are the key fields invested by China in these countries,so this paper has introduced the natural resource endowments of the host countries,and researched the regulating effect in the effect of OFDI export trade of China in the countries along the "Belt and Road".Moreover,the fluctuation of exchange rate can cause a huge impact on the investment and trade of one country.So this paper has also introduced the bilateral exchange rate as a regulating variable to research the regulating effect of exchange rate in the effect of OFDI export trade of China in the countries along the "Belt and Road".This paper collated the effect of export trade of China with the countries along the "Belt and Road" from theoretical analysis,status quo analysis and mechanism analysis.In the theoretical analysis,this paper systematically collated the theories related to the international direct investment and trade,and reviewed the literatures related to the effect of OFDI export trade,the impact of natural resource endowments on the investment and trade,and the impact of exchange rate on the investment and trade;in the status quo analysis,this paper analyzed the direct investment and export scale and structure of China in the countries along the "Belt and Road".The analysis results show that the scope and scale of investment by China in these countries are continuing to expand,and the export structure is continuing to be optimized,but different countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" have some differences in the investment and export structure;in the mechanism analysis,this paper analyzed the effect of OFDI export trade from four different investment motivations,namely,market-seeking OFDI,efficiency-seeking OFDI,resource-seeking OFDI and innovative asset-seeking OFDI.The results show that different OFDIs have different impacts on the export scale,but they can all optimize the export structure to some extent.Then,this paper selected the data of direct investment and export trade of China in 60 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2008 to 2017 for empirical analysis.The results show that the direct investment in these countries by China can significantly accelerate China's export,and meanwhile can promote the export of the medium-technology and the high-technology manufactures,and optimize China's export structure.The levels of natural resources of the countries along the "Belt and Road" can enhance the accelerating effect of OFDI on the export to some extent,namely,the natural resource endowments can positively regulate the effect of OFDI export trade of China.Meanwhile,the appreciation of the RMB can enhance the promoting effect of China's investment in the countries along the "Belt and Road" on the export trade.Finally,this paper summarized and generalized the results of empirical analysis,and proposed specific advice on the investment and trade policies of China in the countries along the "Belt and Road" at the country and enterprise levels.