Research On The Impact Of Export Trade Of China To Countries Involved In The “Belt And Road Initiative”

As the representative of the emerging market,China's economy has been rising and gaining benefit from the economic globalization,and trade links China and the global economy in a direct way.However,the state of weak recovery,deglobalization and depluralism is becoming the new normal of the world economy.In the course of its development,China has to answer the question that how to respond to the new normal of the current world economy.Six years has passed by since the strategy vision being put forward in 2013,and immediate summary is needed to make upon the following aspects: Whether the follow-up development of “Belt and Road Initiative” is sustainable? How does it affect the development of China's trade? Whether the trade with the countries involved in the “Belt and Road Initiative” could promote the full play of China's own advantages? What are the resistance in trading?To explore the abovementioned questions,in this research,the author had collected data of 54 countries involved in the “Belt and Road Initiative” as samples and established panel data based on these data of trade during 2007 and 2017.Through analyzing these statistics data,this research first examined the “change” brought to the trade of China by “Belt and Road Initiative” from a qualitative perspective.Meanwhile,quantitative was employed from the following three aspects.A: A data network of trade of China with the countries involved in “Belt and Road Initiative” had been established,laying the foundation for the sustainable development of the initiative.The layout and transition of trade relation between China and these countries had been analyzed.B: By setting the “One Belt and One Road” policy dummy variable and using the stochastic frontier gravity model,the effect of the initiative,trade essential factors,effectiveness and potential of the trade under the influence of “Belt and Road Initiative” were calculated and verified.C: The model of Home Market Effect had been used to test the home market effect that China exerted on these countries and regions.Based on the above research,the main conclusions of this thesis were obtained.A: China's trade volume with the “Belt and Road” region had a year-on-year increase compared to its trade volume with the world.The trade with the region had become increasingly important to China.Moreover,China's invariable center position of the trade network indicated that China had a high voice and influence.B: The “Belt and Road Initiative” had a positive effect on China's export trade growth,effectively improved China's export trade efficiency to countries along the route.China's trade characteristics with countries in this region was obviously unbalanced.C: The Home Market Effect existed in China's export to South Asia,Southeast Asia and East Central Asia.Additionally,since the proposal of the “Belt and Road initiative”,the commodity China exported to the region showed the trend that production feature transformed from laborintensive to capital-intensive.In the end,this thesis interpreted the “Belt and Road Initiative” from multiple aspects and analyzed the initiative's-impact on China's export trade.Finally,in order to give a full play of “Belt and Road Initiative” in China's export trade,suggestions had been provided based on conclusions of this research,such as strengthening the construction of transportation,properly handling border disputes,adopting different strategies for trade in different regions,and accelerating the adjustment of domestic industries to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.