The Analysis On The Trade Effect Of China’s OFDI To Countries Along The Belt And Road

With the implementation of the strategy of "the belt and road", China’s OFDI in the countries along the strategy grows rapidly, enconomic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the strategy is going continuously strengthened. Affected by the overall decline in global trade, China’s foreign trade growth is slowing, at the same time, our country economy into the "new normal" period, the ministry of foreign trade need a new growth engine. According to the existing theoretical research and empirical analysis conclusion,OFDI will either promote or replace international trade.In view of this, this article has a in-depth research on the trade effect of China’s OFDI to the countries or areas along the belt and road,and discuss how to through the development of direct investment on the belt and road to promote bilateral trade.Firstly, this paper carried out the systematic introduction against relevant theories of the trade effect of OFDI, and influence transmission mechanism of trade effect;then,the detailed analysis was carried out against current situations of China’s OFDI and trade to the countries along the belt and road.Next,the empirical part, this paper selected the 2003-2014 the panel data of analysis,establish the gravity models, according to the results of national direct investment effect of export trade and import trade effects are complementary. At the same time, investment trade effect factors of market size, labor resources, the degree of trade facilitation on the trade effect is positive correlation, while the natural resources is negatively related to the trade effect. Finally, according to the theoretical analysis and empirical results some policy measures are proposed, in order to promote the development of China’s coorperation with the countries along the belt and road in investment and trade area.