Analysis Of The Change Of Commodity Housing Price And Its Influencing Factors In Chongqing’s Main City Based On SD

China’s real estate market started in the 1980 s.With the reform of the housing system and land use system,China’s real estate industry has developed rapidly and has gradually become an important pillar of China’s macro economy.In the past five years,housing prices have continued to rise and the increase has been large,which has seriously eroded the purchasing power of residents and disrupted the order of the market.In some places,the signs of real estate bubbles have become obvious,which has become a hidden danger of China’s macro economy to some extent.The government’s regulatory policies have been accompanied by the market.From 2003 to 2015,the government has been promoting the stability of housing prices and market regulation.However,the real estate market is a market with a cyclical nature.The trend of housing prices is not stable,so the policy The implementation may not be as good as expected.Before 2016,housing prices in Chongqing have been stabilizing,and real estate control policies have been relatively modest.The housing market began to heat up in the second half of 2016,and many strong policies were implemented in 2017.This paper selects the main urban area of Chongqing as the research object.Firstly,it reviews the theory of real estate price formation mechanism,and sorts out the current literature on the development of real estate market(the study of house price changes and its influencing factors).Secondly,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the current commercial residential market and land market in the main urban area of Chongqing.On the basis of this,combined with the specific situation of the research area,with the system dynamics method,constructs four subsystems related to the price of commercial housing.-Population subsystem,demand subsystem,supply subsystem and price subsystem,and finally build a comprehensive system of commodity housing prices.After the model system was defined,the parameter values were determined,and the equations were written,the Vensim software was used to run and debug to be realistic.On the basis of ensuring the validity of the model,policy simulation experiments were conducted on variables such as population,property tax,urban construction and maintenance tax,land supply area and land price to provide suggestions for the development of the commodity housing market in the main urban area of Chongqing.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The commodity housing price in the main urban area of Chongqing has been stable and rising in 2005-2016,but the rate of improvement is relatively slow.In 2016,the residential price level in Chongqing’s main urban area was only 7507 yuan / square meter,far lower than the national average house price,indicating Chongqing The city has curbed the effect of excessive housing price increase,and has been at the forefront of most cities.Although there is fluctuation in the supply of residential land in the main urban area of Chongqing,the overall supply is sufficient,the quantity of supply is greatly affected by the policy,and the supply structure and scale are more reasonable.(2)By establishing a system dynamics model,the demand for commercial housing will continue to increase in the future,and the price of commercial housing will keep rising.It is expected that the average price of commercial housing will reach 24030 yuan / square meter by 2025.Along with the rise in housing prices and household income,the future price-to-income ratio will continue to rise,and house prices will rise much faster than income.The price-to-income ratio is expected to exceed 15.In the future,the supply of commodity housing market in Chongqing will be greater than demand,but the difference between the two will not be too great,and the supply demand ratio is around 1.15.(3)Population growth can have an impact on housing prices.The greater the population,the greater the increase in housing prices.The number of urban population will increase by 5% and 10% respectively,and the price of commercial housing will increase by 2,327 yuan and 2,063 yuan respectively.Changes in real estate tax rates have less impact on housing prices,and the impact on demand and housing prices is limited in the short term.When the property tax is lowered by the current tax rate,the price of commercial housing drops by about 4%.The urban construction and maintenance tax has the least impact on housing prices.The increase in land supply has a greater impact on the housing prices in the main urban area of Chongqing,and the effect is most obvious.The greater the supply intensity,the greater the decline in house prices.The effect of land price is second only to the land supply area.The faster the land price increases,the greater the increase in house prices.From the simulation effect of the policy,the land supply area > land price > urban population > real estate tax > urban construction maintenance tax.(4)Based on the impact of policy simulation on housing prices,the land supply factors are selected as the key targets of policy simulation.By simulating the demand for residential land in all districts and counties,the relationship between supply and demand is balanced,and housing prices are reduced due to imbalance between supply and demand.Unreasonable changes.Through the historical data modeling calculation,the total size of residential land planned for the main urban area in 2017-2021 is 63.3 million square meters,which is stable in the upper and lower range of this value,which can ensure the stable development of supply and demand and is conducive to the stability of the housing market.The simulated value is 12% higher than the actual total supply of residential land in the first five years(2012-2016)of 56.16 million square meters.From the space point of view,in the next five years,the main urban area within the inner ring line will be planned to supply 5.3 million square meters of residential land,mainly located in the Dadukou group,and scattered stocks in the areas of the Yuzhong Peninsula,Jiangbei,Nanping,etc.;inner ring and outer ring It is planned to supply 47 million square meters of residential land,mainly located in Xiyong-University City,Babin Road-Longzhou Bay,Chongqing Iron and Steel-fishing mouth,Kowloon Peninsula,Guangyang Island-Tea Garden,Lijia-Caijia,Yuelai-Central Parks and other areas;outside the outer ring line to supply 11 million square meters of residential land,mainly located in the water and soil,Longxing,Fusheng area of the Liangjiang New Area and some plots of Beibei,Weibei and Banan.It can be seen from the research that the current commodity housing prices in the main urban area of Chongqing have increased significantly compared with the previous years,but generally tend to be healthy and properly regulated.In the future,house prices will continue to show an upward trend,and they will be affected by land and population.