The Simulation Reserach Of Commodity Housing Prices Of Shanghai

Since the housing system reform in 1998, the housing market of our country has experienced high-speed development, which has made prominent contribution to driving the national economic growth and improving people’s living standard. However, China’s housing market exposes a series of problems in the process of the development, which are conducive to the healthy development of China’s macroeconomic, and may have an adverse effect on the stability and harmony of the whole society. Therefore, the real estate market in our country, especially the commercial housing price, has always been the focus of attention from all walks of life, and it is also an important topic of the scholars devoted to the study.Housing marketization has been realized since 2000. Our country provides policy to support the development of housing industry, including mortgages, reduce loan interest rate, etc. Through rapid development, the real estate investment has been developed too fast from 2003 to 2005, the country’s major measure is to reduce investment. From 2005 to 2008, house price was rising too fast, therefore, the government increased supply, curbed demand to take control of house prices’ rising. The property market faced its cold year in 2008, therefore, the government increased stimulus measures to promote the development of real estate. At the end of 2009 it was rising too fast again, our country then issued a series of pricing and increasing supply measures to crack down on speculative demand. Government intervention and regulation are not well solved the housing problem. Therefore, it is necessary to change the law of house prices in major cities in-depth study, grasp the main factors affecting the relationship between prices and lay a better foundation for the regulation of prices.This paper chooses Shanghai as the research object. According to the causes of rapidly rising prices, it further studies the city’s house price fluctuation characteristics and the influence factors. First it makes a review of the literature which analyzing the price change characteristics and influencing factors. On the basis of existing achievements, combined with Chinese characteristics, it makes a classification and induction of the influence factors of housing system from the perspective of system research. Using system dynamics method, the paper constructs the subsystems of house price’s formation and operation respectively. Finally it constructs a whole system of the operation of housing price. After building the model and equation, it uses Vensim software to make test and adjustment to set up the actual model. Then it tests the various affecting variables, and makes the conclusion of the most important factors driving the housing price, then it gives the possible suggestions that may be available.