The Simulation Of Commercial Residence Price Of The Main City Zone In Chongqing Based On System Dynamics

With the reform of housing system since the reform and open started, the realestate industry has become one of the mainstay industry of our national economy, andhow to make it actively play a pivotal role in the national economy while preventingbubble has become the focus problems concerned by the whole people. Commodityhousing market is an important component of real estate market, housing pricefluctuations will directly affect the real estate industry operations and economicdevelopment. As one of municipality, recently Chongqing`s national economy and percapita income has made so rapid growth that the demand for housing has been massivereleased, and the investment of commodity housing has achieved a great boom.Ultimately, the increase of suppliers and buyers result in Chongqing`s commodityhousing market has made a rapid development. Consequently, to study the theory ofcommodity housing price so as to sanely guide the development of Chongqing`s realestate market is pressing and meaningful.The article first analyzes the characteristics of commercial housing prices, anddiscusses the composition of commodity housing prices according to the real estatedevelopment process and the influence factors by literature research. Secondly, thispaper studies commodity housing market of the main districts of Chongqing includingthe land market, commodity housing supply and demand and its price, and sums up thecharacteristics of commodity housing market. Thirdly, according to the influence factorsof commercial housing price and the characteristics of commercial housing market ofchongqing master city,this paper constructs cause and effect feedback chart by systemdynamics from some aspects: population, urban economy and the constituent of housingprices, analyzes the feedback relation of each factor, and recognizes the key feedbackloop. Fourth, The article builds a simulation model about the commodity housing priceof the main districts of Chongqing, divides the price system into three parts: demand,supply and price.and then determines the equation between each variable. Based on thehistoricaldata, such as population, urban economy, land costs and housing sales and soon, simulates the commodity housing price of the main districts of Chongqing from1998to2014and forecast the price from2014to2018by Vensim. Finally, regulatesfour variables: the tax, vacancy rates, consumer expectations and the land policy, and presents the corresponding policy recommendations based on the results of theregulation. The study can provide a favorable reference to the relevant regulatorypolicies and promote the coordinate development between the real estate market and thesocio-economic.