Study On Interactive Relationship Between The Land And Housing Price Of Wuhan Commodity Housing

Since the commercialized housing supply and land market transaction in China, the commercial housing and land market have been enjoying a boom with the steady and fast macroeconomic development as well as the rapid increase in residents’disposable income. And in the meanwhile it makes the urban commercial housing and land price continue to drive higher. The sharp rise in commodity housing and land price and the relationship between them have become a hot spot concerned by government, real estate industry and academic circles. For now, a number of experts and scholars at home and abroad have done academic and empirical study to relations between land and housing price nationwide and in some big cities, but the research about the relationship between Wuhan housing and land price is neglected, and what is more, the former limited studies were implemented more at macro level instead of micro level. Given this, this paper focuses on the land and housing price of Wuhan commodity housing and analyzes the causal relationship between them. In addition, it also probes deeply into the interplay of commodity housings’land and housing price, from macro view and micro view, so as to explore the role of commercial housings’land prices in rising house prices. This paper aims to provide scientific basis for regulating real estate market, creation of public and fair trading conditions, and the effective policy on real estate.Firstly, this paper has performed an analysis on relations between land and housing price of commodity housing, using the Granger causal analysis. On the one hand, by making the macro analysis on the running-status of Wuhan real estate market through macro-economic data and real estate index in Wuhan, the paper attempts to offer a comprehensive research background for relations between land and housing price of commodity housing, and provide necessary data for empirical analysis. On the other hand, it has tested the causality between commodity housings’land and housing price in Wuhan from the first quarter of2006to the fourth period of2013, by adopting the Granger causal testing method, it has also established an error correction model to study the short-term and long-term interaction. Finally, based on the Granger causal testing results, this paper has expounded the exact land and housing price as well as the land prices’share of housing price of the commercial residential buildings, which was built in Wuhan urban area partly by bidding, auction or spectacle from2006to2013, adopting the method of quantitative analysis. What is more, it has explored the changing features of proportion of commercial housings’land and housing price of Wuhan, both in a macro and micro level. The fluctuation rule between them is proposed to provide reference to the analysis to the role of land price in rising house prices.According to the research achievements above, the results show that:In the short term, the land price and housing price of Wuhan influence each other, and land price has a more significant impact on housing price.The short-term fluctuations around by housing price are relatively stable, and for the land price, the opposite is true; But in the long term, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between land price and housing price, and the land price is summarized as the Granger reason of housing price.The commercial housings’land and housing price ratio of Wuhan is still at low level. The land cost doesn’t account for large amount in the housing price. Though the overall level of26.34%might take some effects on the housing price, but little impact. It is revealed that part of high housing prices in Wuhan are not caused by land price, and furthermore, the land price is more sensitive than housing price in that it is more likely to influenced by social and economic development. The land price and housing price ratio would not change over time, which also shows no regularity. In addition,"the higher house price, the higher percentage of land price" does not exist in Wuhan real estate industry. The high price project is indeed concerned with excessive margins. In terms of some project, the higher the housing price, the lower the land and housing price ratio. Consequently, starting with the results of the study, the author emphasizes the regulation on land market and full play of land price on housing price. At the same time, relevant departments ought to develop related policies to cool housing prices, regulate the housing market supply, and establishing the real estate price evaluation system and analysing housing prices objectively and reasonably.