Study On The Yangzhou Housing Price Simulation Based On System Dynamics

Since the reform and opening up,the government has carried out several reforms on the housing system,making the real estate play an important role in the economic development of our country.How to promote the steady development of the real estate and against the occurrence that watch out for the real estate has been a hot issue of concern to all sectors of the society.In recent years,the economy of Yangzhou has developed rapidly,the per capita income is increasing,the residents' rigid demand for housing has been released,and the investment in commodity housing is increasing.The growth of both the supply and demand sides has contributed to the rapid development of the housing market in Yangzhou,but at the same time it also promotes the rising price of commodity residence.In view of the housing price problem,the government has issued a lot of control policies,including tightening the loan amount and raising the down payment ratio,but has not received the planned result.Therefore,how to formulate effective control policies to restrain the further increase of housing price and to guide the future development of real estate in Yangzhou are very urgent and meaningful.Firstly,the article describes the concept of commodity housing and commodity housing price,analyzes the characteristics of commodity housing price,probes into the composition of commodity housing price according to the process of real estate development,and discusses the influencing factors of housing price with literature research method,and present the related theory of system dynamics.Vensim the software is also introduced.Secondly,on the basis of the commodity housing price theory and the system dynamics theory,the housing price system is defined.The supply,demand,macro factors and policy factors are provided on the basis of the analysis of the influencing factors of the commodity housing price in the previous article.In four aspects,40 variables are selected to construct the feedback loop of the house price cause and effect,analyze the feedback relationship between the factors and identify the key feedback loop.On this basis,the dynamic flow chart of the commodity housing price system is constructed,and the main method of determining the variable relationship in the model,the table function and the regression function are also established.In the end,based on the dynamic analysis of the commodity housing market in Yangzhou,the historical data of the population and GDP,the proportion of residential development investment and the housing sales area since 2002 to 2016 in Yangzhou,the commodity housing price of Yangzhou city is simulated by using the software of Vensim from 2002 to 2016,and forecast the housing price from 2017 to 2021.finally,we choose the three variables of the development tax rate,the loan interest rate and the land price to carry out the policy adjustment and control test,and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions according to the control results.Through the study of Yangzhou commodity housing price simulation,it can provide reference to guide the healthy development of the real estate market for the government,and promote the coordinated development of the real estate market and the social economy.