| This article to the low carbon economy development of hunan province as a whole system,using the LMDI decomposition analysis it is concluded that the influence factors of low carbon economy of the whole system,on the basis of using the system dynamics model,clean up between various influencing factors of mutual connection and restriction,causal relationship,build the SD model simulation and dynamic simulation,finally find out to achieve in the next 10 years in hunan province feasible mode of low carbon economy development goals.The article is divided into five chapters,the first chapter mainly introduces the research background and research status at home and abroad;The second chapter introduces the base theory of the low carbon economy;The third chapter using the LMDI factor decomposition analysis method of energy consumption and carbon decomposition analysis to get main influence factors of low carbon economy development system in hunan province;The fourth chapter constructs the SD model of low carbon economy development of hunan province,and the simulation prediction;The fifth chapter the LMDI decomposition analysis conclusion and SD model simulation results,respectively to adjust the key variables to explore a reasonable model of low-carbon development in hunan province.Through simulation of SD model,and the results show that while maintaining the existing proportion of GDP,fixed assets investment,energy consumption structure and investment in science and technology,the policy goals to reduce emissions from 2015 to 2025 in hunan province.To explore the feasible mode of low carbon economy development of hunan province,based on SD model by adjusting different influence factors in simulation.The results show that when GDP growth to maintain is 6%;Coal,oil,natural gas consumption rate is 40%-10%-10%;Science and technology input accounted for 20%,reduce to 50% of fixed asset investment accounted,policy goals to achieve a low carbon economy development of hunan province,which is of low carbon economy development of hunan province feasible mode. |
