The Choosing Of Low-carbon Economy Development Path Of Shanxi Province Based On System Dynamics Theory

The development of low-carbon economy is an important strategic choice forglobal climate change, China as the largest developing country in the world, alsoattaches great importance to the development of low-carbon economy. Shanxi Provinceas China’s largest coal-rich province, the rapid economic growth is also characterized byhigh energy consumption, high emissions, high pollution, in the process of economicdevelopment, resources and the environment can not be coordinated development. So,in this paper, through construct the model of low-carbon economy development ofShanxi province, aims to pick the best way to ensure the positive economic growth andthe harmonious development of economy, environment, resource and social.This paper takes Shanxi Province as the research object, under the guidance oflow-carbon economy theory, though the analysis of economic development, energyconsumption and carbon emission, find out the key factor which affecting thedevelopment of low-carbon economy in Shanxi province. According to the principle ofsystem dynamics, build the system dynamics of low-carbon economy in Shanxi, whichinclude four subsystems: economic development subsystem, subsystem of energyconsumption, carbon emissions subsystem and supporting subsystem. Through thecointegration theory validates all systems’ correlation. Set1995as the starting year, themodel to be simulated. After the model is proven to be effective, through the analysis ofdifferent design scenarios, the development of low-carbon economy in2013-2020werepredicted, and to explore the feasible path of Shanxi Province to achieve the low-carboneconomic development goal. The model simulation results show that the adjustment of asingle element does not achieve carbon reduction targets, only adjust these three factorsof economic structure, energy structure and the population at the same time, it canachieve the low-carbon economic development of Shanxi province.Finally, combined the model simulation results with the actual situation, putforward the development countermeasures of low carbon economy in four aspects: the structure optimization of Shanxi province economic policy; energy structure adjustmentpolicy, social development policy and system of government management policy. Hopethat through the interaction of various policy can promote the early realization oflow-carbon economy development in Shanxi province.