Research On Low-carbon Development Path Of Industry Based On System Dynamics

Based on the international situation of environmental protection, China would face daunting challenges on saving energy and reducing pollution discharge. It has been six years since Tianjin was selected as one of the pilot cities for Low-Carbon development since 2008. It is meaningful to examine the achievement of Low-Carbon development, to provide guidance for exploration of further green development method. Firstly, this essay builts up the system dynamic model, and calculates the carbon emissions of industrial sector from 2005 to 2020. Then based on four subsystems of economic, demographic, environmental and energy, forecasts carbon emissions from 2014 to 2020. It was indicated that the industrial carbon emission intensity would decrease by 41.08% from 2005’s level by 2020 under the current development model, achieving the target of 40~50% as pledged in the Copenhagen Accord. But failing to achieve the refined target of 17% as stated in the 12 th Five-Year Plan of Tianjin.Secondly, in view of the above shortcomings, this thesis introduces a new variable--Carbon Trading to the model, in order to make sure that low-carbon development of industrial enterprises in Tianjin is possibility and feasibility under the carbon trading path. The results show that, Carbon turnover will steadily rise. But accelerate since 2022, And it predicts that carbon turnover will reach about 150 million in 2030 in Tianjin. On the other hand, carbon intensity will decrease by 9.67% in 2020 after the implementation of carbon trading. And it Even lower at 2030, it will be only 0.6, decreasing by 15.37%. In other words, their emission reduction affect will gradually emerge in the late. In 2020, the absolute amount of carbon emissions will be 167.743 million tons, decreasing nearby 10%. To 2030, carbon emissions will drop to 480.081 million tons, declining of about 15.37% compared with 567.243 million tons at beginning. Obviously, the decrease of intensity is very close with the decreasing rate of the amount of carbon emissions, so that carbon trading does not affect the overall level of economic development of industry.Then to introduce anther variable--carbon tax to the model. Studies have shown that, since the carbon tax increased while ranging from 10 to 25 yuan for each ton, its industrial carbon emissions will show the evolution of the U-shaped trend. And the optimal carbon tax is 18 yuan per ton. However, carbon tax will have a negative impact on industrial economy of Tianjin for short-term at the perspective of strength. Under the optimal tax rate, with the continuous improvement and promoting a carbon tax regime, the suppression effect on the economy would gradually weaken and disappear since 2027. When it comes to 2030, the emissions intensity would reach 0.60571, and it will go down 14.57% of level of non-tax conditions at the same period. In addition, the carbon emissions will be 162,930,900 tons in 2020 at the perspective of absolute amount. It will decline 12.3% compared with scene of no tax, and decline 2.87% compared with scene of carbon trading; Until the year of 2030, It will decline 15.42% compared with scene of no tax, and decline 0.06% compared with scene of carbon trading. Visibly, through carbon tax, the saving effect is better than regulation of carbon trading, without considering the inhibitory effect on the economy.Finally, this thesis focuses on the origin of energy conservation—to adjust the energy structure and promote technical progress. The results show that: To promote technological progress and adjust energy structure, effective emission reduction in long term can be achieved. Just think about the amount of carbon emissions, the effect of adjustment of energy structure is superior than technological progress; after the restructuring of the energy reductions, it will decline more than 30% of emission reduction compared with carbon trading and carbon taxes over the same period. At the perspective of carbon intensity, to promote technological progress and adjust energy structure, it can catch the emission reduction intensity to 0.66 in 2020, as well as the 0.6 at 2030 under the carbon taxes and carbon trading. About 25% reductions compared with carbon trading. and more about 45% reductions compared with carbon taxes over the same period.The effects of technological advances is slightly better, because it will put litter inhibition on economy; With the coordination of optimization of industrial structure and acceleration of technical progress, the emission reduction intensity of 2020 would achieve a high-target of 0.448.