Countermeasure Research On The Low-Carbon Economy Development Of Jinlin Province Based On System Dynamics

With the increasing influence of greenhouse gases on people's production and life,people's attention to low-carbon economy has been greatly increased.International discussions on energy consumption and emissions in China are increasing day by day.In the 13 th Five-Year Plan,China has set the related goals of low-carbon economy.According to the national target of carbon emission,Jilin Province has set a low carbon economy target of less than 92.5 million tons of standard coal for energy consumption in 2020,which is less than 18 percent in 2015.The construction of low-carbon economic development system is of great significance to judge whether Jilin Province can achieve the goal of low-carbon economy in 2020.The core of this study is to understand the development of low carbon economy in Jilin Province,judge whether it can achieve the low carbon economy goal set in the 13 th Five-Year Plan and provide countermeasures and suggestions for the development of low carbon economy in Jilin Province.In this study,the data of economy,energy and population in the Statistical Yearbook of Jilin Province from 2000 to 2016 are taken as the data source.The first chapter mainly introduces the background significance of the research and related theories,the second chapter through quantitative analysis to understand the development of low carbon economy in Jilin Province,Lmdi factor analysis method is used to analyze the factors that affect the core variables of low carbon economy system,such as GDP,energy consumption and carbon emissions.Chapter three is based on the idea of system dynamics.The low carbon economy of Jilin Province is regarded as a large scale system which contains many correlative variables,and a low carbon economic dynamic system of Jilin Province is constructed,which includes economic subsystem,environment subsystem,energy subsystem and social subsystem.The fourth chapter verifies the effectiveness of the system,and simulates the data from 2017 to 2020 under the initial value of the system to determine whether Jilin Province can achieve the low-carbon economic development goal by 2020.If it can not be realized,it is necessary to set up the simulation scenario of single factor and double factor from2017 to 2020,and the fifth chapter,combined with the simulation results of the fourth chapter,puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of low-carbon economy in Jilin Province.Through a series of discussions above,this study draws a conclusion that the influencing factors of low carbon economy in Jilin Province include scientific and technological input,industrial structure,fixed asset investment,total energy consumption,per capita energy consumption level and population structure.The validity of the low-carbon economic development system in Jilin Province is confirmed by the data test from 2006 to 2016,and the data from 2017 to 2020 are run under the initial parameters.It is proved that Jilin Province can not reach the low carbon economic target of reducing carbon emission intensity by 18% in 2020 compared with 2015.Through single factor analysis,it is found that the carbon emission intensity is the most affected by the proportion of scientific and technological input and the energy consumption structure.The impact of fixed asset investment and per capita energy consumption on daily life is relatively small,but in the five groups of simulations,the results of case 5s 5 are the best.The results are set as follows: the third industrial fixed asset investment is 5.8% and 47.36%,and the ratio of scientific and technological investment is 1.14%,and the per capita energy consumption increases by 4%.The consumption ratios of coal,oil,natural gas and primary electricity are 71% and 18%,respectively.Four countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the development of low-carbon economy universities in Jilin province,such as the adjustment of industrial structure,the increase of effective scientific and technological input,the adjustment of energy consumption structure,the cultivation of awareness of energy saving and emission reduction,and the improvement of life style.