Development Of Low-carbon Economy Of Shanxi Province

With the continuous development of the world economy and the consumption of fossil energy, the problem of climate has become an inevitable concern for most countries. The increasingly exacerbated climate problem necessitates humans to begin to reflect the mode of economic development. After many years of exploration, the economic transformation of low carbon on which the entire countries have reached a consensus on low-carbon economy which is being put onto schedule to deal with climate problems.As the largest developing country, our country China has a pivotal role on the problem of climate change. Shanxi is an important heavy industry base in the north of China; years of high-carbon development mode has caused serious destruction to the local ecology. Under the background of the new situation and demand for sustainable development, it has become necessary to choose to develop low- carbon economy. In order to lay the foundation for formulating relevant policy, this paper uses the IPCC recommended calculation method of greenhouse gases to calculate the terminal amount of co2 released by energy consumption based on the data of energy consumption in Shanxi Province during 2000 to 2009 and meanwhile draws the following conclusions according to the specific analysis of energy consuming status quo, energy flexibility and the intensity of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province.Firstly, calculate the amount of co2 released by energy consumption in Shanxi province through the model and data processing, specifically, the emission of co2 in 2009 reached 6314.71 tons which is approximately 2.24 times bigger than that in 2001. So the emission of co2 grew in phase with the development of economy, especially the emission caused by petroleum and natural gas proved to be remarkable. Although the proportion rendered by coal consumption shows a downward trend, the absolute value of co2 emission still keep growing.Secondly, the second industry still takes a considerable proportion in Shanxi'economic aggregate as an old industrial base, especially the heavy industry making up a mainstay of Shanxi'economy. But fortunately, the weight of the third industry is showing a rise though slow. Overall, further intensifying the adjustment of industrial structure, and striving to develop the third industry are one of the most effective approaches to realize the development of low-carbon economy.Thirdly, by comparison of energy elastic coefficient, the trend of Shanxi'elastic coefficient of electric consumption accords with that of the average level, that's the development of economy still largely depends on electricity whether the Shanxi or through the whole nation, more specifically, the energy consumption elastic coefficient of Shanxi and the national average level all show an increase, then following a decline. What make difference are merely the dropping points of different periods. So all above illustrates the speed of economic development in China exceeds that of energy consumption, which is mainly caused by the improvement of energy efficiency and technology, and also indicates the relatively large developing space left in the future.Fourthly, based on the analysis of the intension of carbon emissions from 2000 to 2009 in Shanxi province, it is obvious to find the declining trend of Shanxi'carbon emission intensity, but much milder than that of GDP growth, which demonstrates the close correlation of energy consumption and economic growth in Shanxi, leaving the remains of energy saving.Fifthly, by adopting the decomposition methods of LMDI to analyze the factors contributing to the emission of carbon dioxide in Shanxi Province, the paper draws the following conclusions: the period from 2000 to 2007 witnessed an upward trend of the emissions per capita in Shanxi, especially during 2000-2003 and 2004-2007 presenting two dramatic growth, while the emissions per capita appeared a decrease from that time onwards, and the joint efforts of the increasing energy demand for economic development and technology progress render this phenomenon. Besides, through the data analysis, improved energy structure and energy efficiency promote the decline of per capita emissions whilst the economic development exerted a negative effect.Sixthly, the paper gives out the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide from 2010 to 2015 in Shanxi Province through Grey Forecasting Model-GM (1, 1) and finds out that the capita emissions still shows ascend in the future due to the increase of population and development of economy, exactly, the number of carbon dioxide emission per capita in 2010 and 2015 is 2.1968 and 3.2043 tons respectively.At last, it is concluded that Shanxi Province still shoulders a heavy pressure on the task of energy saving and emission reduction by analyzing the feature of energy consumption. The authority can emphasize more attention on the improvement of policy, system and technology referring the foreign advanced experience and theory on this field.