System Dynamics Model On The Urban Low-carbon Development Process

Global climate change has been a hot issue of the international community. Inrecent years, the negative impact of climate change has been a serious threat to thenormal production activities and human life. International communities are calling todevelop a low carbon economy. China as the emerging developing countries, bothfacing the pressure brought by the international community and a pressing needs foreconomic development. Therefore, only the development of urban low-carboneconomy can help us find a way to achieve the country’s economic transformation andsustainable development. This article explored the development of low-carboneconomy in a city perspective. It mainly content as follows:The article summarized the literatures of low-carbon economy in twoperspectives, one of which is the low-carbon economic implications and the other isthe carbon emissions. Based on the reviews of these literatures, the article elaboratethe Low-carbon, low-carbon city,"decoupling" theory and the core features of the lowcarbon economy, which provides a theoretical basis for later model and the Tianjinempirical research in the article. The article analyses natural resources, the economicdevelopment status and low-carbon status of Tianjin and point out the problems facedby the development of low-carbon economy in Tianjin. Combined with the analysisbefore and the country’s carbon emission reduction targets we propose a low carbonemission target to the year of2025. The chapter V of the article establishes a systemdynamics model of the urban low-carbon economy and use the Kaya formula tocalculate the carbon emissions of Tianjin between2000and2010. The model predictsthe carbon emission development trends to2025and set four different policy optionsto analyze whether Tianjin could achieve carbon reduction targets in2025underdifferent policy options and policy portfolios. And then find a low-carbondevelopment policy priority of Tianjin.Finally, the article combined the model results with the local conditions andspecific situation of Tianjin, proposed low-carbon economy policy measures mainlyin the industrial structure, energy technologies, energy structure, urban planning, market mechanisms, policies and regulations, low carbon awareness, carbon sinks andother aspects of the proposal.