Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Listed Companies In The Software And Internet Industries

With the advent of the big data era,China is paying more and more attention to the development of software and Internet industries.Under the support of national policies,this industry has grown into the main industry to support national economic growth.Strengthening the construction of this industry is an inevitable choice for China to build an innovative country,and also a key measure to gain international competitiveness in the context of "Internet plus".However,with the development of the industry,its characteristics of high risks and high returns are more obvious.Problems such as rapid update of information technology,high proportion of intangible assets and narrow financing channels lead to poor stability of cash flow of companies in this industry.Once the capital chain breaks,the company is very easy to fall into financial crisis.Therefore,companies in this industry need a financial crisis warning model to help them manage financial risks.Although there have been many studies on early warning of financial cr-isis,there are few studies specifically aimed at this industry Because different industries have different characteristics,directly applying the model of other industries will cause great deviation.Therefore,this paper takes the industry as the object of study.Based on the research at home and abroad and the characteristics of the industry,this paper constructs the index system from the perspective of financial indicators and non-financial indicators.Among them,financial indicators cover five aspects:profitability,debt-paying ability,operational capacity,cash flow management,development capacity.Non-financial indicators cover three aspects:innovation ability,governance structure and external evaluation.This paper takes 56 listed companies in the A-share market of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2003 to 2017 as the research object.The research object is divided into two parts:training set and prediction set.The training set sample is used to build the model,and the prediction set sample is used to test the accuracy of the model.In this paper,sensitive indicators arc screened out by significance test,and a financial crisis warning model is established by factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis.Then the paper selects the appropriate critical threshold.According to the data test of the prediction set sample,the prediction accuracy of the model is up to 87.50%.This result has a good guiding significance.Through the research,three conclusions are drawn.First,the historical data of listed companies can be analyzed to obtain better prediction results.Second,the company's financial situation is affected by various aspects of ability.Third,non-financial factors have an important impact on the company's financial situation.In order to make the listed companies in this industry better manage financial crisis,this paper puts f'orward Suggestions from two aspects:macro policies and corporate policies.Finally,the paper summarizes the full text,analyzes the def'ects of the r-esearch,and makes a prospect for further research in the future.