Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Listed Companies In My Country's Media Industry

In recent years,the media industry as an emerging industry is receiving more and more attention.With my country's reform and opening up and the continuous development of the economy,the values of the public are becoming increasingly diversified,bringing opportunities for the development of the media industry.The loose regulatory environment and policy orientation have given the media industry a very favorable opportunity.Many listed companies have gathered in mergers and acquisitions to expand,and the media industry has achieved rapid development in mergers and acquisitions.However,the potential risks have also increased accordingly.Therefore,companies should take precautions against these potential risks,raise their awareness of precautions in times of peace,and prevent them from falling into crisis in the future.On the basis of traditional financial indicators,this article considers the influence of goodwill factors on the financial status of media companies based on the characteristics of the media industry,and subdivides goodwill factors,and selects indicators from the initial confirmation and measurement stages of goodwill,Which reflects the nature of goodwill.At the same time,the financial indicators that meet the characteristics of the media industry are selected,and a financial crisis warning model belonging to the media industry is constructed through empirical methods such as factor analysis,chi-square test,and logistic regression.The ROC curve is used to compare the goodwill comprehensive indicator model and the traditional indicator model.Accuracy and visual analysis of significant indicators through the financial crisis forest chart,distinguishing the selected significant indicators into protective factors and risk factors.The empirical research shows that the comprehensive ability of a company's operations is a "protective factor" for the company's financial health.,And goodwill factor indicators such as the premium rate of mergers and acquisitions,the growth rate of performance commitments,cash mergers and acquisitions,and one-time payment mergers and acquisitions are "dangerous factors" for corporate financial health.Finally,we selected Tianshen Entertainment as the research target company and used the goodwill early warning model to test,and successfully predicted the financial status of Tianshen Entertainment in the past two years,and analyzed the causes of the financial crisis of the enterprise,and proposed the use of the financial crisis model in time for early warnings for existing problems.,Establish an M&A decision-making control system,improve the performance commitment system,choose non-cash M&A payment methods,choose installment payment M&A methods,strengthen operational capability indicator monitoring and other optimization suggestions in order to provide useful reference and enlightenment for the development of other media companies.