The Research On Financial Early Warning Of Listed Companies Based On System Dynamics

Whether foreign and domestic enterprises,in the global economic environment and enterprise business environment of rapid and complex dynamic environment,financial warning is the urgent problem for enterprises to solve at present.In recent years,with the frequent occurrence of bankruptcy bankruptcy due to financial problems,the enterprise crisis is basically a process from generation to deterioration,and the consequences of the enterprise are all very serious.For enterprises,we must timely and accurately locate the risk source,and carry out timely management effectively,so as to prevent the financial crisis of enterprises,ensure that enterprises occupy a certain advantage in the market competition,and ensure their own sustainable development.Therefore,enterprises must be able to timely find out a series of problems in the process of operation,accurate estimate of the enterprise financial situation in the future,the enterprise managers should be able to timely and effective formulate the corresponding preventive measures,to timely and effectively prevent enterprises facing financial crisis,it must be timely and accurate early warning and identify the financial crisis.The idea of this paper is to analyze the background and significance of financial warning,Then discuss the direction and process of financial early warning research of domestic and foreign enterprises,On the current situation of dynamic model in financial application,Shows the advantages of the system dynamics financial early warning model;Then,based on the basic theoretical analysis of financial early warning and system dynamics,Combining the principle of system dynamics and financial warning,And select the debt ratio index,operating income index,interest expenditure and other financial indicators as well as the policy of this non-financial index to establish a model;Finally,the selection of electricity commercial bank Amazon listed companies for financial index forecast,And to its case application analysis,It proves that establishing the model is somewhat scientific and reasonable.Through the research of this paper,it provides a new research method and ideas for the financial warning of listed companies.In order to help enterprises to predict the coming of the risk crisis in advance.At the same time,according to the relevant special nature of the system dynamics,enterprises can carry out the strategic comparative analysis of the financial management crisis through the constructed financial early warning model,to further improve the efficiency of financial management and effectively prevent the financial crisis.