Study On Temporal And Spatial Characteristics Of Land Use Change In Harbin

Land use change is the direct response of human economic and social development to the use of land resources,and it is the main content of global environmental change and sustainable development research.Accelerated land-use changes produce more complex land-use patterns that directly or indirectly trigger changes in the ecological environment,such as soil quality,climatic conditions,and hydrological conditions.Therefore,scientifically and rationally analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change and exploring future land use change trends can provide a scientific reference basis for the rational development and utilization of regional land resources,improvement and protection of ecological environment,and sustainable economic development.This paper takes Harbin as the research area,and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change in the study area from 1992 to 2014 by using land use dynamic degree,land use degree,transfer matrix and other metrological models.Based on the actual situation in the study area,the author selected 12 socioeconomic indicators and used the principal component analysis to quantitatively analyze the driving forces of land use change;establish a conversion rule based on economic and ecological,use Markov model,MCE model,CA model to predict the land use in the study area in 2025.The results of the study indicate that:(1)During the period from 1992 to 2014,the cultivated land rapidly decreased,and the proportion of the study area decreased from 72.35% to 64.45%;the construction land continued to expand,and the proportion of the research area increased to 13.22%,increasing the total area by 399.68km2;Changes in woodland and water areas;Grassland slowly decreasing;Unused land rapidly decreased.(2)During the period from 1992 to 2014,the comprehensive land use dynamics in each region of the study area was not high,ranging from 10% to 20%,and the land use change was relatively stable.In terms of spatial distribution,the areas with high dynamics of comprehensive land use are mostly concentrated in the central area of the study area,and the north and southeast of the study area perform generally.From 1992 to 2003,the comprehensive land use dynamics of Xiangfang District was the highest,with 17.756%,and the land use change was the most active.From 2003 to 2014,the land use change in Pingfang district was the most active with a value of 26.081%.Compared with the previous period,the dynamic degree of comprehensive land use in Daoli District,Daowai District,Hulan District,Nangang District,and Pingfang District all increased.Land use change activity has been continuously improved.(3)During the period from 1992 to 2014,the comprehensive index of land use degree in the study area showed an increasing trend,and the degree of land development and utilization continued to increase.The areas with strong land use were mostly concentrated in the central part of the study area,and Nangang District,Xiangfang District,and Pingfang District..(4)During the period from 1992 to 2003,the net transfer of cultivated land was 135.04km2,which was mainly transferred to construction land and forest land.As the transfer of cultivated land to construction land increased,the net transfer amount was 181.07km2;the woodland was transferred to and from the basic balance;The conversion between water area and cultivated land is significant;grassland and unused land are transferred to and out of the area significantly,and the spatial location changes actively.During the period from 2003 to 2014,the cultivated land was transferred to a net area of 41.295km2,which was mainly transferred to construction land,forest land and water area;the forest land was relatively stable,and there was no obvious shift to and from;the water area increased due to the large amount of cultivated land;the main source of construction land expansion It is still a large amount of arable land.(5)From 1992 to 2003,the center of gravity of the arable land moved 356 m to the southeast,and the construction land moved 2307 m to the west.From 2003 to 2014,the center of gravity of the arable land moved 886 m to the north.The speed of movement was significantly faster than that of the previous period.Construction land moved southwards by 1,791 m,and the speed of movement slowed.On the whole,from 1992 to 2014,affected by the main grain production areas in the north of the study area,the center of gravity of the cultivated land moved to the north as a whole and moved closer to Hulan District and Bayan County.The construction land was due to the isolation of the Songhua River and the climate.Restrictions,the overall move to the southwest in favor of economic development.(6)From 2003 to 2014,economic development and consumption levels,population,and industrial structure were the three major aspects affecting land use change,and as time progressed,the impact of socio-economic development on land use change in the study area continued to increase..(7)The Kappa coefficient of the land use results and actual interpretation data obtained in the experiment in 2014 reached 0.8780,indicating that the CV-Markov model suitable for the study area has high credibility,and the prediction of the land use change in the study area in 2025 shows that The trend of land use change from 2014 to 2025 is different from 1992 to 2014.The arable land continues to decrease,and the rate of decline is accelerating.The forest land is basically in a state of dynamic equilibrium.The spatial position of grassland is changing actively,the area of water area is increased,and the construction land is still growing;Accelerate the movement to the urban fringe area,the speed of construction land to the southwest direction to reduce the speed;land use continues to increase.