Study On Land Use Change Driving Force And Forecast Based On GIS

Land use change and driving force analysis are the focus of research in Land use change.land use patterns'driving force is Land use change,and driving Land use changes is the driving force.Research on the driving forces of Land use change is a prerequisite for research on land use planning optimization.The study of change driving forces and the optimization of land use planning include a research framework that can provide a more accurate scientific basis for the development of regional land use planning.This article takes Chongqing Rongchang District as the research area.Firstly,according to the interpretation of 6 remote sensing images,the area of Land use change type in Rongchang District was obtained.Secondly,Based on the analysis of land use dynamic degree,land use degree comprehensive index and land use landscape change index,comprehensive index of Land use change model was established.The overall change comprehensive index model obtains the comprehensive index of land use overall change from 2000 to 2015 in Rongchang District.The routine curve fitting method and principal component analysis method are used to analyze the driving factors,and then,analyze and compare the driving results.Finally,construct the vensim system dynamics.The model was used to simulate and predict the land use type in Rongchang District,and the results were used to optimize land use planning.The results of the study are as follows:?1?Doing some preprocessing like geometric correction,radiation correction,image cropping and enhancement on TM/ETM 6 remote sensing images in 2000,2003,2006,2009,2012 and 2015,with supervised classification with unsupervised classification methods were interpreted.The interpreting results were classified as six types:forest land,cultivated land,grassland,water area,construction land,and unused land.The precision of interpretation reached more than 80%,which could meet the research requirements.?2?The Land use change characteristics in Rongchang District from 2000 to 2015are more obvious.From the perspective of the land use type area,cultivated land,grassland,and unused land have generally shown a decreasing trend;forest land,construction land,and water land have generally shown an increasing trend.According to the dynamics of single land use,the growth rate of forest land is the fastest,the follow is construction land.The increased rate of unused land is the fastest,followed by grassland.There are two high peaks in the comprehensive degree of land-use dynamics and and showing a steady increase presentation after the second peak;the comprehensive index of land-use degree index gradually and steadily rises after falling into the bottom of the valley.Both the amount of change and rate of change are less than0,so,the change trend of the degree comprehensive index shows that the land use is in the adjustment period.From the perspective of land-use landscape changes,the number of patches,the maximum patch index,and the landscape shape index gradually decreased,and the landscape diversity and landscape evenness rose slowly,which indicating that the land use pattern in the Rongchang District gradually developed in a balanced manner.Grassland,water areas,and unused land use are take small proportion of land accounts.Cultivated land,forest land,and construction land are development in balance.Based on the five landscape indicators,a land use landscape change index was set up to prepare the research foundation for the establishment of a comprehensive index of land use change.?3?Using three comprehensive indicators of comprehensive land use dynamic degree,land use degree index and land use landscape diversity index,establish a comprehensive index model of Land use change overall change and try to quantitatively study Land use change The overall degree of change,the model by the use the coefficient of variation method to definite the weight of each index,and then,calculated by the weighted sum.Through the results of the study,it can be seen that there are two high values and two low values of the overall change in Land useage,after the second low value,and they tend to stabilize and increase steadily.It shows that in the past 15years,the development level of land use in Rongchang District has fluctuate greatly,and there is still room for land use development in Rongchang District.?4?Using the conventional curve fitting method to fit the 27 single driving indicators and the comprehensive index of land use degree in Rongchang District,the typical indexes that are highly fitted are obtained:permanent residents,urbanization rate,highway mileage,GDP per capita,construction Total output value,total social fixed asset investment,total retail sales of social consumer goods,balance of RMB deposits by financial institutions,total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,total output value of animal husbandry,per capita consumption of rural residents,health technicians,public library collection,per capita garden green area,these 14 indicators are closely related to the comprehensive index of land use,and have a great impact on land use.?5?Since the conventional curve fitting method only performs the fitting analysis for each driving force index separately,and does not consider the linkage effect between each index,this research selects the gray correlation analysis method and principal component analysis method to synthesize the driving force.10 indicators of high correlation were selected,Use the grey relational analysis method,indicating that the 10indicators had the greatest impact on Land use change in Rongchang District.The 10indicators included:permanent population,urbanization rate,highway mileage,and agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.Output value,animal husbandry,GDP per capita,balance of RMB deposits by financial institutions,total retail sales of consumer goods,industrial SO₂ emissions,and per capita green area.Using the principal component analysis method to determine the dominant factors affecting Land use change in Rongchang District is social economy,transportation and ecological factors.?6?Constructing a vensim model to simulate and predict Land use change in Rongchang District.The error of the simulation results obtained is small,and prediction analysis can be performed.Through the impact of land use transition probability and setting driving force on Land use change,the area and structure of land use type in Rongchang District were obtained in 2030.The results showed that the forest land,construction land and cultivated land were more balanced and developed.The proportion of grassland,unused land,and water areas is still small.?7?Based on the research of Land use change simulation and prediction,combined with the existing land use overall planning of Rongchang District from 2006 to 2020,it is concluded that the future land use development in Rongchang District should be more reasonable on the basis of maintaining the cultivated land holding capacity.We will lay out basic farmland,focus on developing agricultural and animal husbandry industries with special characteristics,develop new and high-tech industries actively,improve land use compilation,and formulate land use development plans scientifically.