The Study Of Dynamic Change Of Land Use And Forecast Analysis In Changzhi City From 2000 To 2020

Land use / land cover change(LUCC) has been one of the core and key issues in the global change research, and regional LUCC research has theoretical and practical significance to effective and rational utilization regional land resource, improvement of regional ecological environment problems. This paper selects Changzhi City which located in Shanxi Province as the study area,use 2000, 2005, 2010 land use map of Changzhi City as basic data, analyzed the spatial distribution pattern and dynamic change of the land use in Changzhi city from 2000 to 2010. And selected the 10 nature, location, economic and social factors and used binary logistic regression method, analyse the change of driving force and driving mechanism of the study area, and thus as the basis set various parameters, establish the CLUE-S model of Changzhi City to simulation the land and use status in 2020. Which provides a strong scientific basis for decision making of Changzhi city land use planning, also for other similar urban LUCC research also has certain reference function.The main research contents andresults are as follows:(1) Analysed the dynamic characteristics and development laws of land use change and spatial pattern in Changzhi city in 2000 to 2010. Selected land use dynamic degree, land use transfer matrix, land use transfer rate and other parameters to analyse dynamic change of land use in Changzhi city. And draw the conclusion: the most obvious land change in Changzhi city is the forest land,grassland and construction land and other land, in which the forest land and construction land showed a significant growth trend.(2)Use binary logistic regression analysis method, and select 10 driving factors, to Construct the driving index system of Changzhi city land use change and to analyze the driving force of land use change in Changzhi city, and also test the fitting degree according to ROC curve. Use the binary logistic regression model to estimate the relationship between Changzhi City Land Use Change and its driving factors has a higher degree. Natural driving factors average value is slightly larger than its social and economic driving factors influence to Changzhi city land utilization,different land utilization types has different driving factors.(3) Based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2005, setting up the relevant parameters, using CLUE-S model to simulate and predict the characteristics of2010 year,s land use spatial pattern of Changzhi City. the simulation has high reliability through kappa coefficient validation and can be used for the simulation for future land use pattern and change in Changzhi City. Based 2010 land use status of Changzhi City simulating land use spatial pattern and land usechange trend in 2020, which provides a new idea and method for Changzhi City land use planning with strong feasibility.