Study On Laohekou’s Pattern Of Land Use Change Based On CA-Markov Model

Land is the basic resource for the survival of mankind, which plays an important role in the future development. In recent years, with the rapid development of economy and society, patterns of land utilization changed greatly and the contradiction became more obvious. For the past years, Lao Hekou’s economy has made a considerable development, but the continuous expansion of construction land is at the expense of reducing farmland area,as a result there will be the destruction of the ecological environment and food reduction,which making Lao Hekou’s survival and sustainable development faces severe challenges. Land use change simulation model provides a powerful tool for further research of land use pattern and change process. CA-Markov model combines the CA model space change ability to simulate complex system with Markov model’s long-term prediction advantages, which not only improves the prediction precision of the transformation of land use types, but can effectively simulate the space of land use pattern change. The CA-Markov model has strong scientificity and practicability.This thesis is taking Lao Hekou city as the research object,with the land use vector data acquired in2005and2010by remote sensing in this area, making simulation projections for the future pattern of land use change. First of all, using ArcGIS10.0software analyze the two phase’s data to obtain various land use structure change, then through the landscape dynamic degree and comentropy study the land use change. At the same time, using Fragstats4.0software calculates landscape pattern index and analyzes the change of landscape pattern index in the study area, then discusses the research area of land use pattern evolution and change rule of among nature, society and economy. On this basis, in the support of IDRISI Andes15.0software build CA-Markov model, predicting Lao Hekou’s pattern of land use in2020. According to the result of the model, the thesis puts forward measures and suggestions for the sustainable development of the region. The purpose of this study is through analyzing Lao Hekou’s land use status quo and the change rule, discussing the influential factors which contributed to the formation and variation of this pattern,thus forecasting Lao Hekou land use pattern in the future, thereby come up with suggestions for the sustainable development.The main conclusion as follows:(1)2005-2010Lao Hekou’s land use structure changes significantly, from a macro perspective, the direction of land use system tend to be more orderly that the construction land increases most highly in the urban and rural construction land and the cultivated land decreases highest in the farmland(2)2005-2010, the landscape pattern change in Lao Hekou is significant, the overall landscape pattern tends to diversity, landscape fragmentation deepen; the advantage plaque is obvious of landscape of urban and rural construction land and farmland landscape, almost all of the land types are involved in the process of the construction land landscape transformation.(3) By analyzing the land use pattern change factors showed that the slope, the distance between administrative centre and traffic lines in the natural factors have much more effects on land use pattern change, among social economic factors, population growth, economic development and relevant policies and regulations are the main causes of the changing of the landscape pattern. This paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis to these influential factors, providing transformation rules for the simulation of land use structure of Lao Hekou’s future projections.(4) Using CA-Markov model to simulate Lao Hekou land use pattern in2010, and making comparison between the simulation result and the actual land use pattern chart, accuracy test, to verify the model prediction effect and whether there is enough credibility, thus to simulate and forecast Lao Hekou’s pattern of land use in2020.(5) According to the prediction analysis result of Lao Hekou’s land use structure, this paper puts forward some suggestions for sustainable development.