The Study Of Land Use Change Based On CA-markov Model In The County

In recent years, Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is the hotspotand cutting-edge issues of global environmental change researchand an important content of global change research. We can bemore effective to dynamic monitor land degradation problem in thefragile ecological environment by using remote sensing equipment,and submit reliable strategies and measures timely, thenstrengthening the macro-management of land resources. Nowadays,more and more land use study using a combination of mathematicalmethods or some kinds of method to explain the situation of landuse change, which will become the development trend of the landuse change.This paper chooses Hong tong county of Shanxi Province as thestudy sample, and analyzes the number and degree change of landuse in this area, mainly includes the following contents:(1) Basedthe land use database of Hong tong county in2001-2010, andanalyze the number and degree change of land use in this area; thenpredicts the trends and changes of land use change of Hong tongcounty in2020which is based on CA-Markov model.(2) This paperanalyzes the driving force of the land use change of Hong tongcounty in2001-2010which from the total population、industrialization、urbanization、policy and other four aspects by using factor analysis method of SPSS software.(3) Based on theprevious studies and the result, this paper did a brief analysis of theland resources use problem of Hong tong county in the future andput forward corresponding measures.Through the study of the above three aspects, the mainconclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) Area change in thenumber of land use types of Hong tong county in2001-2010wasapparent; the area of cultivated land、garden、pasture is reducing;Otherwise the area of urban construction land and communicationand water conservancy construction land are increasing. In general,the land use of Hong tong county is be in a period of development byanalyzing the degree of land use, individual towns are in the landuse adjustment or recession period.(2) By using CA-Markov model,this paper predict the land use distribution of Hong tong county in2020which expressed as: the area of farmland、garden、pasturesand waters will be reduced, but the area of woodland、 urbanconstruction land and transport water conservancy constructionland will be increased.(3) There are two main driving factors whichimpact the land use change of Hong tong county Factor1mainlyincludes the level of urbanization、the second and third industryoutput/GDP; Factor2mainly includes the total population、GDP、agricultural structure ratio.