Study And Trend Analysis On County Land Use Change Based On GIS

The study on land use dynamic change, driving force analysis and change trend are hot spots and front edge problems in current global change study. It is common that the studies on land use and land cover are tightly connected with each other. The study on the driving force of land use / land cover is introduced from the study on the change of land cover. The studies on natural driving forces are mainly concentrated on qualitative study. While more quantitative studies which are more detailed and specific are adopted for the study on the social driving forces. And the relationships of the different social driving factors with land use / cover and environmental change are so recovered. During the course of the studies, the combination between natural and social science is strengthened. And further exploration is made for many questions such as what kind of more favorable land use mode should be adopted and how to enhance the adjust and control on existing land use modes so as to provide basis for the sustainable use of land. The use of Markov model on the prediction of the future trend of land use change can make us foresee the land use structure in the future, is helpful in taking effective measures to promote favorable development and prevent unfavorable development trend at the same time.In this dissertation, based on the present land use change tables and MAPGIS land use database of the certain county from the year 2002 to 2007, the land use dynamic change between 2002 and 2007 of the certain county is studied firstly. And the land use change of the certain county is analyzed from several aspects such as the quantitative change of land use mode, the time and space change of land use structure, land use degree change and the spatial variation of land use change; then, principal component analysis is carried out on the driving forces of the land use change in the certain county. And a conclusion is drawn: the most powerful driving force on the land use change of the certain county is the social investment in fixed assets, and the driving forces influencing the land use structure of the county are strengthened with years; and at last, Markov model is used for the prediction of land use of the certain county in the year 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016. It can be seen from the prediction that by the year 2016, the cultivated land, garden land, residential, industrial and mineral land, and traffic and transportation land in the certain county will be in a increasing trend. And the residential, industrial and mineral land has the largest increasing amplitude. While the woodland, other agricultural land, water conservancy facility land and unused land are in a decreasing trend.