A Study Of Crisis Communication Mechanism Based On Dynamic Model

With the globalization of world economy,crisis events occur frequently,which cause great threat and loss to people's life and property.How to manage the crisis effectively has become a difficult problem to be solved by the government.The characteristics of new media,such as fast speed,wide range and complex path,increase the difficulty of crisis management.In order to effectively manage crisis events,we need to accurately grasp the dissemination mechanism of crisis information.Considering that in different crisis events,the factors affecting the development of the crisis are different.On the premise of population flow in the crisis environment,this article establishes three crisis dissemination models respectively,including the introduction of crisis facilitation mechanism,crisis turning coefficient,forced disengagement coefficient and uncertain variables.Which are studies the transformation relationship among latent disseminators,disseminators and non-disseminators,as well as between latent disseminators and disseminators.1.In this thesis,the disseminate mechanism of crisis events is studied under the condition of population mobility.On the premise of the crisis relief mechanism,this paper analyzes the transformation rules among latent disseminators,disseminators and non-disseminators.By finding the crisis equilibrium point of the model,the global stability of the equilibrium point and its relationship with the development trend of the crisis are analyzed.Finally,we simulate the impact of crisis equilibriu,crisis duration and crisis disseminate ability on crisis management through numerical experiments,and give the corresponding policy recommendations.2.By introducing the coefficient of crisis turning and the coefficient of forced disengagement,the model of crisis dissemination based on the standard incidence and the mechanism of forced disengagement is constructed.The dissemination mechanism of crisis events is studied under the condition of standard incidence and forced disengagement mechanism.Then the model's crisis subsiding point,crisis sustaining point and crisis equilibrium are given.The globally asymptotically stability of themodel's crisis equilibrium is analyzed,and the main factors affecting the crisis dissemination are analyzed.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to verify the impact of these factors on the number of disseminators in the crisis environment,and on the basis of this puts forward some related policy suggestions.3.Firstly,the deterministic crisis dissemination model is studied,and the stability of the model is analyzed.Then,the uncertain variables are introduced on the basis of the deterministic dissemination model,and the uncertain crisis dissemination model is established.The uncertainty of the model is eliminated by finding the ?-path of the model,and then the model is solved.The crisis equilibrium and its global stability of the model are analyzed.Finally,the stability of the model solution is verified by numerical simulation.